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Champions League
Referee: S Marciniak
Man City
S S T S S
4–1
Full-time
Dortmund
T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Dortmund
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
83%
50%
Points per game
2,5
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,3
2,5
Scored
1,8
1,5
Conceded
0,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
33%
100%
Both score Ø 67%
33%
100%
Average goals
2,7
6,3
Scored
2,0
4,0
Conceded
0,7
2,3
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,98 xG 1,02
50% Possession 50%
18 Shots 12
11 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 8
4 Corners 4
3 Offside 0
11 Free kicks against 17
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

25. Oct -22 Dortmund – Man City 0–0 14. Sep -22 Man City – Dortmund 2–1

Match report

Man City Dortmund
15′
🟨 Daniel Svensson
1–0 P. Foden ⚽
T. Reijnders
22′
2–0 E. Haaland ⚽
J. Doku
29′
Half-time 3–0
3–0 P. Foden ⚽
T. Reijnders
57′
66′
🔁 J. Bellingham
↦ M. Beier
66′
🔁 P. Gross
↦ M. Sabitzer
66′
🔁 C. Chukwuemeka
↦ S. Guirassy
66′
🔁 E. Can
↦ R. Bensebaini
72′
⚽ W. Anton 3–1
J. Ryerson
Savinho 🟨
78′
R. Dias 🔁
↦ Savinho
79′
R. Cherki 🔁
↦ J. Doku
79′
B. Silva 🔁
↦ T. Reijnders
79′
81′
🔁 F. Silva
↦ K. Adeyemi
Nico O'Reilly 🟨
85′
O. Marmoush 🔁
↦ E. Haaland
86′
R. Ait-Nouri 🔁
↦ N. O'Reilly
86′
4–1 R. Cherki ⚽
90′
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Man City

4-1-4-1
25 G. Donnarumma G
27 M. Nunes D
5 J. Stones D
24 J. Gvardiol D
33 N. O'Reilly D
14 Nico M
26 Savinho M
4 T. Reijnders M
47 P. Foden M
11 J. Doku M
9 E. Haaland F
Bench (11)
1 J. Trafford
13 M. Bettinelli
3 R. Dias
6 N. Ake
7 O. Marmoush
10 R. Cherki
20 B. Silva
21 R. Ait-Nouri
45 A. Khusanov
52 O. Bobb
82 R. Lewis

Coach: Pep Guardiola

Dortmund

3-4-2-1
1 G. Kobel G
3 W. Anton D
4 N. Schlotterbeck D
5 R. Bensebaini D
26 J. Ryerson M
20 M. Sabitzer M
8 F. Nmecha M
24 D. Svensson M
27 K. Adeyemi F
14 M. Beier F
9 S. Guirassy F
Bench (9)
31 S. Ostrzinski
33 A. Meyer
2 Y. Couto
7 J. Bellingham
13 P. Gross
17 C. Chukwuemeka
21 F. Silva
23 E. Can
28 A. Anselmino

Coach: Niko Kovac

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Marciniak · 126 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.