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Championship

Referee: Jacob Miles

Wrexham

U S U U T

2–2

Full-time

Watford

S U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Wrexham Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

1,5

3,2

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 33%

30%

35%

Points per game

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

30%

55%

Both score Ø 68%

60%

75%

Average goals

2,4

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,20 xG 0,83

52% Possession 48%

16 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 1

5 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Wrexham 15. · Watford 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	20	13	5	2	+29	+20.2	44
2	Preston	21	9	8	4	+7	-4.7	35
3	Middlesbrough	18	10	5	3	+6	+3.7	35
4	Millwall	20	10	5	5	-2	+3.0	35
5	Ipswich	20	9	7	4	+15	+16.0	34
6	Stoke	21	10	3	8	+8	-3.9	33
7	Hull	19	9	4	6	+2	-10.2	31
8	QPR	20	9	4	7	-3	+3.4	31
9	Bristol City	20	8	6	6	+5	+2.7	30
10	Southampton	20	8	5	7	+5	+9.0	29
11	Birmingham	20	8	4	8	+4	+10.8	28
12	Watford	20	7	7	6	+2	+5.5	28
13	Leicester	20	7	7	6	+1	-4.3	28
14	West Brom	21	8	4	9	-3	+1.9	28
15	Wrexham	20	6	9	5	+1	-5.8	27
16	Derby	20	7	6	7	-2	-6.1	27
17	Sheffield United	21	7	2	12	-6	+6.4	23
18	Charlton	19	6	5	8	-6	-8.8	23
19	Swansea	21	6	5	10	-7	-8.8	23
20	Blackburn	19	6	4	9	-5	+6.3	22
21	Oxford	21	4	7	10	-8	-5.8	19
22	Norwich	21	4	5	12	-10	-9.1	17
23	Portsmouth	19	4	5	10	-11	-6.8	17
24	Sheffield Weds	19	1	6	12	-22	-14.5	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	9	7	2	0	+18	+9.0	23
2	Ipswich	11	6	4	1	+10	+13.4	22
3	Watford	11	6	4	1	+7	+6.1	22
4	Birmingham	9	6	2	1	+13	+11.9	20
5	Middlesbrough	9	6	2	1	+4	+0.0	20
6	Hull	10	6	2	2	+3	-2.8	20
7	Stoke	10	6	1	3	+9	+1.7	19
8	West Brom	10	5	4	1	+5	+5.6	19
9	Preston	11	5	4	2	+4	-1.8	19
10	Millwall	10	6	1	3	+0	+4.2	19
11	Southampton	9	5	2	2	+6	+6.7	17
12	QPR	10	5	2	3	+2	+6.7	17
13	Wrexham	10	4	4	2	+2	+2.4	16
14	Bristol City	11	4	3	4	+3	+1.0	15
15	Swansea	11	4	3	4	-2	-3.3	15
16	Charlton	9	4	2	3	+0	-2.2	14
17	Leicester	9	3	4	2	+1	+2.9	13
18	Derby	11	3	4	4	-3	-0.7	13
19	Sheffield United	10	3	2	5	+0	+7.4	11
20	Portsmouth	10	3	2	5	-2	+0.7	11
21	Oxford	10	2	4	4	-4	+1.1	10
22	Norwich	10	2	1	7	-5	-1.2	7
23	Blackburn	10	1	3	6	-7	+3.6	6
24	Sheffield Weds	10	0	2	8	-19	-7.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	11	6	3	2	+11	+11.1	21
2	Preston	10	4	4	2	+3	-2.9	16
3	Blackburn	9	5	1	3	+2	+2.7	16
4	Millwall	10	4	4	2	-2	-1.1	16
5	Middlesbrough	9	4	3	2	+2	+3.7	15
6	Bristol City	9	4	3	2	+2	+1.7	15
7	Leicester	11	4	3	4	+0	-7.3	15
8	Derby	9	4	2	3	+1	-5.5	14
9	Stoke	11	4	2	5	-1	-5.7	14
10	QPR	10	4	2	4	-5	-3.3	14
11	Ipswich	9	3	3	3	+5	+2.6	12
12	Southampton	11	3	3	5	-1	+2.3	12
13	Sheffield United	11	4	0	7	-6	-1.0	12
14	Hull	9	3	2	4	-1	-7.3	11
15	Wrexham	10	2	5	3	-1	-8.2	11
16	Norwich	11	2	4	5	-5	-8.0	10
17	Oxford	11	2	3	6	-4	-6.8	9
18	Charlton	10	2	3	5	-6	-6.6	9
19	West Brom	11	3	0	8	-8	-3.7	9
20	Swansea	10	2	2	6	-5	-5.5	8
21	Birmingham	11	2	2	7	-9	-1.1	8
22	Sheffield Weds	9	1	4	4	-3	-7.2	7
23	Watford	9	1	3	5	-5	-0.6	6
24	Portsmouth	9	1	3	5	-9	-7.5	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.