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Ligue 1

Referee: G Paradis

Lorient

U S S U S

1–1

Full-time

Metz

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lorient Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,5

Scored

2,2

1,7

Conceded

0,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 22%

25%

19%

Points per game

1,1

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

44%

63%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,9

3,4

Scored

1,2

1,1

Conceded

1,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,44 xG 0,41

43% Possession 57%

16 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lorient 12. · Metz 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	17	13	1	3	+18	+8.4	40
2	Paris SG	16	11	3	2	+21	+15.7	36
3	Marseille	17	10	2	5	+19	+10.1	32
4	Lille	17	10	2	5	+11	+6.6	32
5	Lyon	17	9	3	5	+8	+7.1	30
6	Rennes	17	8	6	3	+5	-0.3	30
7	Strasbourg	17	7	3	7	+5	+5.1	24
8	Toulouse	17	6	5	6	+2	+2.4	23
9	Monaco	17	7	2	8	-3	+2.9	23
10	Angers	16	6	4	6	-1	-11.4	22
11	Brest	16	5	4	7	-6	+0.2	19
12	Lorient	16	4	6	6	-9	+0.7	18
13	Nice	17	5	3	9	-10	-10.4	18
14	Paris FC	16	4	4	8	-8	-5.8	16
15	Le Havre	16	3	6	7	-9	-2.8	15
16	Nantes	17	3	5	9	-12	-12.7	14
17	Auxerre	16	3	3	10	-11	-2.4	12
18	Metz	16	3	2	11	-20	-13.4	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	8	7	0	1	+12	+9.4	21
2	Marseille	9	6	2	1	+14	+8.9	20
3	Paris SG	7	6	1	0	+14	+9.2	19
4	Lille	9	6	1	2	+8	+8.1	19
5	Lyon	8	6	0	2	+8	+8.3	18
6	Rennes	8	5	2	1	+10	+6.4	17
7	Strasbourg	8	5	1	2	+10	+10.1	16
8	Monaco	9	5	1	3	+2	+5.0	16
9	Lorient	8	4	3	1	+3	+4.1	15
10	Angers	8	4	2	2	+5	-1.3	14
11	Nice	9	4	2	3	+0	-1.1	14
12	Brest	8	3	3	2	+1	+6.3	12
13	Toulouse	9	3	3	3	+0	+3.8	12
14	Le Havre	8	2	4	2	+1	+6.0	10
15	Auxerre	9	3	1	5	-1	+3.7	10
16	Paris FC	8	2	2	4	-3	+0.1	8
17	Metz	8	2	2	4	-3	-1.5	8
18	Nantes	8	1	2	5	-7	-6.7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	9	6	1	2	+6	-1.0	19
2	Paris SG	9	5	2	2	+7	+6.5	17
3	Lille	8	4	1	3	+3	-1.5	13
4	Rennes	9	3	4	2	-5	-6.8	13
5	Marseille	8	4	0	4	+5	+1.2	12
6	Lyon	9	3	3	3	+0	-1.2	12
7	Toulouse	8	3	2	3	+2	-1.5	11
8	Nantes	9	2	3	4	-5	-6.0	9
9	Strasbourg	9	2	2	5	-5	-5.0	8
10	Paris FC	8	2	2	4	-5	-5.9	8
11	Angers	8	2	2	4	-6	-10.1	8
12	Monaco	8	2	1	5	-5	-2.1	7
13	Brest	8	2	1	5	-7	-6.1	7
14	Le Havre	8	1	2	5	-10	-8.8	5
15	Nice	8	1	1	6	-10	-9.4	4
16	Lorient	8	0	3	5	-12	-3.4	3
17	Metz	8	1	0	7	-17	-11.9	3
18	Auxerre	7	0	2	5	-10	-6.1	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.