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Championship

Referee: M Donohue

Swansea

S S T T U

2–2

Full-time

Middlesbrough

S T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

2,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 40/37 matches

Win Ø 44%

38%

49%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

48%

51%

Both score Ø 52%

50%

54%

Average goals

2,5

2,4

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,16 xG 3,13

35% Possession 65%

12 Shots 29

3 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 16

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 10

14 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 16. · Middlesbrough 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	40	25	8	7	+42	+30.5	83
2	Ipswich	39	20	12	7	+29	+27.8	72
3	Millwall	39	20	9	10	+9	+5.0	69
4	Middlesbrough	37	18	10	9	+14	+21.9	64
5	Wrexham	40	17	13	10	+9	-4.3	64
6	Hull	37	19	7	11	+8	-20.6	64
7	Derby	41	18	9	14	+9	+2.8	63
8	Southampton	37	17	11	9	+19	+15.7	62
9	Norwich	41	17	7	17	+7	-2.9	58
10	Watford	41	14	15	12	+3	+4.5	57
11	Bristol City	41	16	9	16	+1	-6.3	57
12	QPR	41	16	9	16	-5	+0.2	57
13	Stoke	41	15	9	17	+3	-11.3	54
14	Preston	41	13	15	13	-4	-15.7	54
15	Birmingham	41	14	11	16	-3	+12.2	53
16	Swansea	40	15	8	17	-5	-4.7	53
17	Sheffield United	41	15	6	20	-1	+13.4	51
18	Charlton	41	12	13	16	-11	-15.0	49
19	Leicester	41	11	14	16	-9	-12.9	47
20	Blackburn	41	12	11	18	-12	+4.6	47
21	West Brom	41	11	12	18	-14	+8.9	45
22	Portsmouth	40	10	12	18	-17	-0.0	42
23	Oxford	41	9	14	18	-15	-7.5	41
24	Sheffield Weds	41	1	10	30	-57	-46.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	20	15	3	2	+26	+20.4	48
2	Ipswich	21	13	7	1	+23	+24.9	46
3	Watford	21	10	7	4	+9	+5.5	37
4	Millwall	20	11	3	6	+6	+6.6	36
5	Southampton	18	10	5	3	+15	+11.2	35
6	Birmingham	20	9	8	3	+13	+18.4	35
7	Swansea	20	10	5	5	+6	-0.5	35
8	Middlesbrough	19	9	6	4	+8	+11.8	33
9	Wrexham	20	9	6	5	+6	+7.7	33
10	Hull	18	10	3	5	+5	-5.3	33
11	Derby	21	9	6	6	+4	+4.1	33
12	Stoke	20	9	5	6	+10	+2.5	32
13	QPR	20	10	2	8	+5	+8.2	32
14	Preston	21	8	7	6	+2	-3.0	31
15	West Brom	20	7	8	5	+0	+12.0	29
16	Sheffield United	20	8	4	8	+7	+13.8	28
17	Bristol City	21	8	4	9	+2	-3.7	28
18	Charlton	20	8	4	8	-2	-0.8	28
19	Norwich	20	8	2	10	+0	+0.9	26
20	Leicester	20	7	5	8	-2	-1.3	26
21	Portsmouth	20	6	5	9	-1	+6.6	23
22	Oxford	20	5	8	7	-7	+1.8	23
23	Blackburn	21	4	8	9	-7	+5.6	20
24	Sheffield Weds	21	0	6	15	-31	-21.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	20	10	5	5	+16	+10.1	35
2	Millwall	19	9	6	4	+3	-1.5	33
3	Norwich	21	9	5	7	+7	-3.8	32
4	Middlesbrough	18	9	4	5	+6	+10.1	31
5	Hull	19	9	4	6	+3	-15.3	31
6	Wrexham	20	8	7	5	+3	-12.0	31
7	Derby	20	9	3	8	+5	-1.3	30
8	Bristol City	20	8	5	7	-1	-2.7	29
9	Southampton	19	7	6	6	+4	+4.5	27
10	Blackburn	20	8	3	9	-5	-1.0	27
11	Ipswich	18	7	5	6	+6	+2.9	26
12	QPR	21	6	7	8	-10	-8.0	25
13	Preston	20	5	8	7	-6	-12.7	23
14	Sheffield United	21	7	2	12	-8	-0.4	23
15	Stoke	21	6	4	11	-7	-13.8	22
16	Leicester	21	4	9	8	-7	-11.6	21
17	Charlton	21	4	9	8	-9	-14.3	21
18	Watford	20	4	8	8	-6	-0.9	20
19	Portsmouth	20	4	7	9	-16	-6.7	19
20	Oxford	21	4	6	11	-8	-9.3	18
21	Swansea	20	5	3	12	-11	-4.2	18
22	Birmingham	21	5	3	13	-16	-6.2	18
23	West Brom	21	4	4	13	-14	-3.1	16
24	Sheffield Weds	20	1	4	15	-26	-24.6	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.