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League Cup

Referee: S Attwell

Southampton

T S S S T

0–1

Full-time

Newcastle

U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,2

1,0

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

1,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,3

This season — League Cup · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 75%

75%

Points per game

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

50%

25%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

2,5

1,5

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

0,5

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

44% Possession 56%

13 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 7

6 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 2. · Newcastle 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nott'm Forest	4	3	1	0	+8	10
2	Southampton	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Wolves	4	3	1	0	+4	10
4	Newcastle	4	3	1	0	+4	10
5	Man United	3	3	0	0	+7	9
6	Milton Keynes Dons	4	3	0	1	+2	9
7	Sheffield Weds	3	2	1	0	+5	7
8	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+5	7
9	Lincoln	4	2	1	1	+4	7
10	Leicester	4	2	1	1	+4	7
11	Blackburn	4	2	1	1	+2	7
12	Stevenage	3	2	1	0	+2	7
13	Derby	3	2	1	0	+2	7
14	Bristol City	3	2	0	1	+3	6
15	Man City	3	2	0	1	+1	6
16	Burnley	3	2	0	1	+1	6
17	Crawley Town	3	2	0	1	+1	6
18	Newport County	3	2	0	1	-1	6
19	Charlton	5	1	3	1	-2	6
20	Gillingham	4	1	2	1	+0	5
21	Exeter City	2	1	1	0	+7	4
22	Bournemouth	3	1	1	1	+2	4
23	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+2	4
24	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+2	4
25	Stockport County	2	1	1	0	+1	4
26	Morecambe	3	1	1	1	-1	4
27	Preston	2	1	0	1	+2	3
28	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+2	3
29	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
31	Grimsby	2	1	0	1	+1	3
32	Leeds	2	1	0	1	+1	3
33	Peterborough	2	1	0	1	+1	3
34	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	Bradford	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Fleetwood Town	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Wycombe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
41	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	-1	3
42	Rochdale	2	1	0	1	-1	3
43	Forest Green	2	1	0	1	-1	3
44	Colchester	2	1	0	1	-1	3
45	Everton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
46	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
47	Norwich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
48	Barrow	2	0	2	0	+0	2
49	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Tranmere	2	0	1	1	-1	1
57	Liverpool	2	0	1	1	-1	1
58	Oxford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
59	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Arsenal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Watford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Tottenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
87	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
88	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
89	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
90	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0
91	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0
92	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Wolves	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Southampton	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Newcastle	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
6	Man City	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Crawley Town	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	Milton Keynes Dons	3	2	0	1	+0	6
9	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Stevenage	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Rochdale	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
17	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+1	3
18	Grimsby	2	1	0	1	+1	3
19	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
21	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Bradford	2	1	0	1	+0	3
24	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
25	Fleetwood Town	2	1	0	1	+0	3
26	Forest Green	2	1	0	1	-1	3
27	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
28	Norwich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
29	Charlton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
30	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Oxford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
40	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Arsenal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Watford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
58	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
59	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
60	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
61	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Lincoln	4	2	1	1	+4	7
3	Nott'm Forest	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Bristol City	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Exeter City	2	1	1	0	+7	4
6	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Leicester	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Derby	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Gillingham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Charlton	3	1	1	1	-2	4
12	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Preston	2	1	0	1	+2	3
14	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+2	3
15	Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
18	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Peterborough	2	1	0	1	+1	3
20	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Colchester	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	-1	3
26	Burnley	2	1	0	1	-1	3
27	Morecambe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
28	Newport County	2	1	0	1	-2	3
29	Everton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
30	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Wolves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-1	1
39	Liverpool	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Man City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Tottenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Rochdale	1	0	0	1	-3	0
59	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
60	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0
61	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.