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Premier League
Referee: S Attwell
Southampton
T U S U T
1–4
Full-time
Newcastle
S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Newcastle
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
17%
83%
Points per game
0,8
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,2
3,2
Scored
0,7
2,7
Conceded
1,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+2,2
This season — Premier League · 13/13 matches
Win Ø 35%
23%
46%
Points per game
0,9
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 46%
46%
46%
Both score Ø 54%
54%
54%
Average goals
2,4
2,6
Scored
0,8
1,8
Conceded
1,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+1,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

55% Possession 45%
16 Shots 7
5 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 1
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
8 Corners 2
4 Offside 1
7 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Southampton 17. · Newcastle 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Arsenal 13 11 1 1 +20 34
2 Man City 13 10 2 1 +27 32
3 Tottenham 13 8 2 3 +10 26
4 Newcastle 13 6 6 1 +14 24
5 Man United 12 7 2 3 +1 23
6 Brighton 13 6 3 4 +5 21
7 Chelsea 13 6 3 4 +1 21
8 Fulham 14 5 4 5 -1 19
9 Liverpool 12 4 4 4 +8 16
10 Brentford 14 3 7 4 -3 16
11 Crystal Palace 12 4 4 4 -3 16
12 Leeds 13 4 3 6 -3 15
13 Leicester 14 4 2 8 -2 14
14 West Ham 13 4 2 7 -2 14
15 Everton 14 3 5 6 -3 14
16 Bournemouth 14 3 4 7 -17 13
17 Southampton 13 3 3 7 -9 12
18 Aston Villa 13 3 3 7 -9 12
19 Wolves 14 2 4 8 -14 10
20 Nott'm Forest 14 2 4 8 -20 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Southampton Newcastle
R. Lavia 🔁
↦ Juan Larios
34′
35′
M. Almirón 0–1
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 C. Wood
↦ C. Wilson
58′
C. Wood 0–2
J. Murphy
62′
J. Willock 0–3
K. Trippier
J. Aribo 🔁
↦ S. Armstrong
64′
S. Edozie 🔁
↦ T. Walcott
64′
A. Armstrong 🔁
↦ C. Adams
64′
64′
🔁 J. Shelvey
↦ J. Murphy
D. Ćaleta-Car 🔁
↦ A. Bella-Kotchap
72′
73′
🔁 A. Saint-Maximin
↦ J. Willock
Roméo Lavia 🟨
75′
80′
🔁 Javi Manquillo
↦ K. Trippier
81′
🔁 E. Anderson
↦ M. Almirón
1–3 R. Perraud
M. Salisu
89′
91′
Bruno Guimarães 1–4
A. Saint-Maximin
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Southampton

4-2-3-1
31 G. Bazunu G
28 Juan Larios D
37 A. Bella-Kotchap D
22 M. Salisu D
15 R. Perraud D
8 J. Ward-Prowse M
3 A. Maitland-Niles M
17 S. Armstrong M
10 C. Adams M
24 M. Elyounoussi M
32 T. Walcott F
Bench (9)
45 R. Lavia
7 J. Aribo
23 S. Edozie
9 A. Armstrong
6 D. Ćaleta-Car
1 A. McCarthy
4 Lyanco
27 I. Diallo
18 S. Mara

Coach: R. Hasenhüttl

Newcastle

4-3-3
22 N. Pope G
2 K. Trippier D
5 F. Schär D
4 S. Botman D
33 D. Burn D
36 S. Longstaff M
39 Bruno Guimarães M
28 J. Willock M
24 M. Almirón F
9 C. Wilson F
23 J. Murphy F
Bench (9)
20 C. Wood
8 J. Shelvey
10 A. Saint-Maximin
19 Javi Manquillo
32 E. Anderson
6 J. Lascelles
13 M. Targett
26 K. Darlow
21 R. Fraser

Coach: E. Howe

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,02
U
3,66
B ✓
1,92
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,90
U2,5
1,92
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

S Attwell · 153 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.