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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Newcastle

T T T S T

3–2

Full-time

Southampton

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

0,7

0,3

Conceded

1,7

2,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-2,2

This season — Premier League · 22/21 matches

Win Ø 33%

27%

38%

Points per game

1,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

45%

38%

Both score Ø 44%

50%

38%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

26% Possession 74%

6 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

0 Corners 7

3 Offside 5

11 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 16. · Southampton 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	21	14	5	2	+26	47
2	Man United	22	13	5	4	+19	44
3	Leicester	22	13	3	6	+14	42
4	Liverpool	22	11	7	4	+18	40
5	West Ham	22	11	5	6	+6	38
6	Chelsea	22	10	6	6	+13	36
7	Everton	20	11	3	6	+6	36
8	Aston Villa	21	11	2	8	+12	35
9	Tottenham	21	9	6	6	+12	33
10	Arsenal	23	9	4	10	+4	31
11	Leeds	21	9	2	10	-2	29
12	Southampton	21	8	5	8	-7	29
13	Crystal Palace	22	8	5	9	-10	29
14	Wolves	22	7	5	10	-8	26
15	Brighton	22	5	9	8	-5	24
16	Newcastle	22	6	4	12	-14	22
17	Burnley	21	6	4	11	-15	22
18	Fulham	21	2	8	11	-14	14
19	West Brom	22	2	6	14	-34	12
20	Sheffield United	22	3	2	17	-21	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	8	2	1	+15	26
2	Liverpool	11	7	2	2	+11	23
3	Chelsea	11	5	4	2	+10	19
4	West Ham	11	5	3	3	+2	18
5	Man United	11	5	2	4	+7	17
6	Aston Villa	10	5	1	4	+5	16
7	Southampton	11	5	1	5	+2	16
8	Leicester	11	5	1	5	+1	16
9	Tottenham	11	4	3	4	+2	15
10	Arsenal	11	4	3	4	+1	15
11	Wolves	11	4	3	4	+0	15
12	Crystal Palace	11	4	3	4	-4	15
13	Everton	10	4	2	4	+1	14
14	Burnley	10	4	1	5	-4	13
15	Leeds	10	3	2	5	-2	11
16	Newcastle	11	3	2	6	-7	11
17	Brighton	11	1	6	4	-4	9
18	Sheffield United	11	2	1	8	-8	7
19	Fulham	11	1	3	7	-10	6
20	West Brom	11	1	3	7	-24	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	11	8	3	0	+12	27
2	Leicester	11	8	2	1	+13	26
3	Everton	10	7	1	2	+5	22
4	Man City	10	6	3	1	+11	21
5	West Ham	11	6	2	3	+4	20
6	Aston Villa	11	6	1	4	+7	19
7	Tottenham	10	5	3	2	+10	18
8	Leeds	11	6	0	5	+0	18
9	Liverpool	11	4	5	2	+7	17
10	Chelsea	11	5	2	4	+3	17
11	Arsenal	12	5	1	6	+3	16
12	Brighton	11	4	3	4	-1	15
13	Crystal Palace	11	4	2	5	-6	14
14	Southampton	10	3	4	3	-9	13
15	Newcastle	11	3	2	6	-7	11
16	Wolves	11	3	2	6	-8	11
17	Burnley	11	2	3	6	-11	9
18	Fulham	10	1	5	4	-4	8
19	West Brom	11	1	3	7	-10	6
20	Sheffield United	11	1	1	9	-13	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.