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Premier League

Referee: M Salisbury

Southampton

T T S S S

0–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 29%

21%

37%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

58%

53%

Both score Ø 58%

63%

53%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,58 xG 1,37

37% Possession 63%

8 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 2

3 Offside 0

19 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 20. · Aston Villa 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	18	15	2	1	+28	–	47
2	Man City	19	13	3	3	+30	+1.6	42
3	Man United	19	12	3	4	+8	+1.6	39
4	Newcastle	19	10	8	1	+22	–	38
5	Tottenham	20	10	3	7	+8	-1.6	33
6	Fulham	20	9	4	7	+3	–	31
7	Brighton	18	9	3	6	+10	–	30
8	Liverpool	19	8	5	6	+9	-0.2	29
9	Brentford	19	7	8	4	+4	–	29
10	Chelsea	20	8	5	7	+1	+0.2	29
11	Aston Villa	19	7	4	8	-5	–	25
12	Crystal Palace	19	6	5	8	-9	-1.6	23
13	Nott'm Forest	19	5	5	9	-19	–	20
14	Leicester	19	5	2	12	-7	–	17
15	Leeds	18	4	5	9	-7	–	17
16	Wolves	19	4	5	10	-15	–	17
17	Bournemouth	19	4	4	11	-23	–	16
18	West Ham	19	4	3	12	-10	–	15
19	Everton	19	3	6	10	-11	–	15
20	Southampton	19	4	3	12	-17	–	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	10	8	1	1	+23	+1.6	25
2	Arsenal	8	7	1	0	+14	–	22
3	Newcastle	10	6	4	0	+13	–	22
4	Man United	9	7	1	1	+12	–	22
5	Liverpool	10	6	3	1	+14	-0.2	21
6	Brentford	10	5	4	1	+10	–	19
7	Tottenham	10	6	0	4	+6	–	18
8	Fulham	10	5	3	2	+3	–	18
9	Chelsea	9	5	2	2	+6	–	17
10	Aston Villa	10	5	2	3	+4	–	17
11	Nott'm Forest	10	4	3	3	+1	–	15
12	Brighton	9	4	2	3	+6	–	14
13	Crystal Palace	10	4	2	4	-5	-1.6	14
14	Leeds	9	3	3	3	+1	–	12
15	Bournemouth	9	3	2	4	-1	–	11
16	Wolves	10	3	2	5	-8	–	11
17	West Ham	9	3	1	5	-3	–	10
18	Leicester	9	2	2	5	-1	–	8
19	Everton	10	2	2	6	-5	–	8
20	Southampton	9	1	3	5	-7	–	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	10	8	1	1	+14	–	25
2	Man City	9	5	2	2	+7	–	17
3	Man United	10	5	2	3	-4	+1.6	17
4	Newcastle	9	4	4	1	+9	–	16
5	Brighton	9	5	1	3	+4	–	16
6	Tottenham	10	4	3	3	+2	-1.6	15
7	Fulham	10	4	1	5	+0	–	13
8	Chelsea	11	3	3	5	-5	+0.2	12
9	Brentford	9	2	4	3	-6	–	10
10	Crystal Palace	9	2	3	4	-4	–	9
11	Leicester	10	3	0	7	-6	–	9
12	Southampton	10	3	0	7	-10	–	9
13	Liverpool	9	2	2	5	-5	–	8
14	Aston Villa	9	2	2	5	-9	–	8
15	Everton	9	1	4	4	-6	–	7
16	Wolves	9	1	3	5	-7	–	6
17	West Ham	10	1	2	7	-7	–	5
18	Leeds	9	1	2	6	-8	–	5
19	Nott'm Forest	9	1	2	6	-20	–	5
20	Bournemouth	10	1	2	7	-22	–	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.