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DFB-Pokal

Referee: F Willenborg

Leverkusen

S T U S S

3–2

Full-time

FC Koln

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen FC Koln

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,0

1,8

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — DFB-Pokal · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

1,7

3,7

Scored

1,7

2,7

Conceded

0,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

79% Possession 21%

23 Shots 5

7 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 1

3 Offside 4

9 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 5. · FC Koln 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stuttgart	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	RB Leipzig	3	3	0	0	+8	9
3	Bielefeld	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	FC Koln	3	3	0	0	+5	9
5	Leverkusen	3	3	0	0	+5	9
6	Wolfsburg	3	3	0	0	+5	9
7	Werder Bremen	3	3	0	0	+4	9
8	Karlsruhe	3	2	1	0	+7	7
9	Augsburg	4	2	1	1	+5	7
10	Bayern Munich	3	2	0	1	+7	6
11	Hertha	3	2	0	1	+4	6
12	Freiburg	3	2	0	1	+3	6
13	Darmstadt	3	2	0	1	+2	6
14	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	+1	6
15	Regensburg	3	2	0	1	-1	6
16	Hoffenheim	3	1	1	1	-2	4
17	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	+5	3
18	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	+4	3
19	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+3	3
20	Paderborn	2	1	0	1	+3	3
21	Dortmund	2	1	0	1	+2	3
22	M'gladbach	2	1	0	1	+1	3
23	Dresden	2	1	0	1	+1	3
24	Greuther Furth	2	1	0	1	+1	3
25	Kaiserslautern	2	1	0	1	+0	3
26	St Pauli	2	1	0	1	-1	3
27	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	-1	3
28	Kickers Offenbach	2	1	0	1	-1	3
29	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	-1	3
30	Mainz	2	1	0	1	-2	3
31	Holstein Kiel	2	1	0	1	-2	3
32	Wurzburger Kickers	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	FC Saarbrücken	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Nurnberg	2	0	1	1	-1	1
35	Sandhausen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Alemannia Aachen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	FC Ingolstadt 04	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Greifswalder FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	TuS Koblenz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Erzgebirge Aue	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Wehen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	VfR Aalen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Braunschweig	1	0	0	1	-3	0
53	Rot-Weiß Essen	1	0	0	1	-3	0
54	Viktoria Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	0
55	Phönix Lübeck	1	0	0	1	-3	0
56	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-4	0
57	Osnabruck	1	0	0	1	-4	0
58	Ulm	1	0	0	1	-4	0
59	Bremer Sv	1	0	0	1	-4	0
60	FC 08 Villingen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
61	Preußen Münster	1	0	0	1	-5	0
62	Sportfreunde Lotte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
63	SV Meppen	1	0	0	1	-6	0
64	Borussia Hildesheim	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bielefeld	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	FC Koln	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Wolfsburg	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Regensburg	3	2	0	1	-1	6
7	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Dresden	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Hertha	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Werder Bremen	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Kickers Offenbach	2	1	0	1	-1	3
16	Karlsruhe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Wurzburger Kickers	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	FC Saarbrücken	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Sandhausen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Alemannia Aachen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	FC Ingolstadt 04	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Bayern Munich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Paderborn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Greifswalder FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	TuS Koblenz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Erzgebirge Aue	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Wehen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
33	VfR Aalen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	Braunschweig	1	0	0	1	-3	0
35	Rot-Weiß Essen	1	0	0	1	-3	0
36	Viktoria Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	0
37	Phönix Lübeck	1	0	0	1	-3	0
38	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-4	0
39	Mainz	1	0	0	1	-4	0
40	Osnabruck	1	0	0	1	-4	0
41	Ulm	1	0	0	1	-4	0
42	Bremer Sv	1	0	0	1	-4	0
43	FC 08 Villingen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
44	Preußen Münster	1	0	0	1	-5	0
45	Sportfreunde Lotte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
46	SV Meppen	1	0	0	1	-6	0
47	Borussia Hildesheim	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+8	6
2	Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+8	6
3	Karlsruhe	2	2	0	0	+7	6
4	Werder Bremen	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Darmstadt	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Augsburg	3	1	1	1	+2	4
8	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	+5	3
9	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	+4	3
10	Paderborn	1	1	0	0	+4	3
11	Hertha	2	1	0	1	+3	3
12	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+3	3
13	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+2	3
15	Dortmund	2	1	0	1	+2	3
16	Mainz	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	M'gladbach	2	1	0	1	+1	3
18	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Greuther Furth	2	1	0	1	+1	3
20	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	+0	3
22	Kaiserslautern	2	1	0	1	+0	3
23	St Pauli	2	1	0	1	-1	3
24	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	-1	3
25	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	-1	3
26	Holstein Kiel	2	1	0	1	-2	3
27	Nurnberg	2	0	1	1	-1	1
28	Hoffenheim	2	0	1	1	-3	1
29	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.