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League Cup

Referee: S Hooper

Newcastle

S S T S T

2–0

Full-time

Arsenal

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,3

Scored

2,2

2,5

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — League Cup · 5/4 matches

Win Ø 78%

80%

75%

Points per game

2,6

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

20%

75%

Both score Ø 45%

40%

50%

Average goals

2,2

4,0

Scored

1,8

2,8

Conceded

0,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

32% Possession 68%

10 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 13

3 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 1. · Arsenal 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Tottenham	4	4	0	0	+4	12
3	Sheffield Weds	4	3	1	0	+6	10
4	Arsenal	4	3	0	1	+6	9
5	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+5	9
6	Crystal Palace	4	3	0	1	+5	9
7	Stoke	4	2	1	1	+6	7
8	Preston	4	2	1	1	+4	7
9	Southampton	4	2	1	1	+2	7
10	Fleetwood Town	3	2	1	0	+2	7
11	Brentford	4	2	1	1	+1	7
12	Man United	3	2	0	1	+9	6
13	Watford	3	2	0	1	+6	6
14	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+4	6
15	Blackpool	3	2	0	1	+4	6
16	Leyton Orient	3	2	0	1	+2	6
17	Wycombe	3	2	0	1	+2	6
18	Coventry	3	2	0	1	+1	6
19	Walsall	3	1	2	0	+1	5
20	Everton	2	1	1	0	+3	4
21	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
22	Leicester	3	1	1	1	+1	4
23	Derby	2	1	1	0	+1	4
24	AFC Wimbledon	3	1	1	1	+0	4
25	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	4
26	Bolton	3	1	1	1	-2	4
27	Barrow	3	1	1	1	-4	4
28	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-6	4
29	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+4	3
30	Chelsea	2	1	0	1	+3	3
31	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	+2	3
32	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	+1	3
33	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+1	3
34	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+1	3
36	Oxford	2	1	0	1	+1	3
37	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Man City	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Millwall	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Tranmere	2	1	0	1	-1	3
43	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	-1	3
44	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	-1	3
45	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	-2	3
46	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	-2	3
47	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-3	3
48	West Ham	2	1	0	1	-3	3
49	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-4	3
50	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Colchester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
60	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-2	1
61	Grimsby	2	0	1	1	-4	1
62	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
87	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
88	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
89	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
90	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
91	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
92	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Tottenham	3	3	0	0	+3	9
3	Man United	2	2	0	0	+10	6
4	Watford	2	2	0	0	+7	6
5	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+4	6
6	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+3	6
7	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Walsall	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Everton	2	1	1	0	+3	4
10	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	Barrow	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Preston	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+5	3
14	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+4	3
15	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+4	3
16	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+4	3
17	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Huddersfield	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Tranmere	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+1	3
27	Man City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	3
33	Southampton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	QPR	2	0	1	1	-1	1
41	Colchester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
42	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-2	1
43	Grimsby	2	0	1	1	-4	1
44	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
61	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
62	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
63	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-5	0
64	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+6	6
3	Blackpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Wycombe	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Crystal Palace	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Liverpool	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	Preston	1	1	0	0	+5	3
12	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	QPR	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	AFC Wimbledon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
22	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	-1	3
23	Brentford	2	1	0	1	-1	3
24	Leyton Orient	2	1	0	1	-1	3
25	Bolton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
26	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Leicester	2	0	1	1	-3	1
36	Barnsley	2	0	1	1	-7	1
37	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Man United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Man City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
61	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
62	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
63	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-4	0
65	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-4	0
66	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-4	0
67	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-4	0
68	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0
69	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.