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Copa del Rey
Referee: Miguel Ortiz
Gernika
U
0–3
Full-time
Celta
U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Gernika Celta
Last 6 — all competitions · 1/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
0%
17%
Points per game
1,0
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
0%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
0%
83%
Average goals
0,0
3,5
Scored
0,0
1,7
Conceded
0,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,2
This season — Copa del Rey · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
1,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
0%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
0,0
7,0
Scored
0,0
6,0
Conceded
0,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+5,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

34% Possession 66%
5 Shots 18
0 Shots on target 7
3 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 0
1 Corners 4
2 Offside 3
8 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Gernika 67. · Celta 23. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Villarreal 2 2 0 0 +10 6
2 Sociedad 2 2 0 0 +8 6
3 Mallorca 2 2 0 0 +7 6
4 Valladolid 2 2 0 0 +6 6
5 Elche 2 2 0 0 +6 6
6 Osasuna 2 2 0 0 +5 6
7 Levante 2 2 0 0 +5 6
8 Sevilla 2 2 0 0 +5 6
9 Sp Gijon 2 2 0 0 +4 6
10 Espanol 2 2 0 0 +4 6
11 Pontevedra 2 2 0 0 +3 6
12 Getafe 2 2 0 0 +3 6
13 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2 2 0 0 +3 6
14 Intercity 2 2 0 0 +3 6
15 Ath Bilbao 2 2 0 0 +3 6
16 Ceuta 2 2 0 0 +2 6
17 Alaves 2 2 0 0 +2 6
18 Albacete 2 1 1 0 +3 4
19 UD Logroñés 2 1 1 0 +2 4
20 Vallecano 2 1 1 0 +2 4
21 Cartagena 2 1 1 0 +1 4
22 Saguntino 2 1 1 0 +1 4
23 Celta 1 1 0 0 +5 3
24 Cacereño 1 1 0 0 +3 3
25 La Nucía 1 1 0 0 +2 3
26 Eibar 2 1 0 1 +2 3
27 Gimnastic 1 1 0 0 +2 3
28 Ath Madrid 1 1 0 0 +2 3
29 Arenteiro 1 1 0 0 +2 3
30 Andorra 2 1 0 1 +1 3
31 Ibiza 2 1 0 1 +1 3
32 Guijuelo 2 1 0 1 +1 3
33 Oviedo 1 1 0 0 +1 3
34 Tenerife 2 1 0 1 +1 3
35 Granada 1 1 0 0 +1 3
36 Linares Deportivo 1 1 0 0 +1 3
37 Girona 1 1 0 0 +1 3
38 Las Palmas 1 1 0 0 +1 3
39 Mollerussa 2 1 0 1 +0 3
40 Fuentes 2 1 0 1 +0 3
41 Alcora 2 1 0 1 +0 3
42 Real Unión 2 1 0 1 +0 3
43 Mirandes 2 1 0 1 +0 3
44 Sestao River 2 1 0 1 +0 3
45 Barbadás 2 1 0 1 -1 3
46 Numancia 2 1 0 1 -1 3
47 Velarde 2 1 0 1 -1 3
48 Diocesano 2 1 0 1 -1 3
49 Algar 2 1 0 1 -2 3
50 Cazalegas 2 1 0 1 -2 3
51 Guadalajara 2 1 0 1 -2 3
52 Arenas Getxo 2 1 0 1 -3 3
53 CD Coria 2 1 0 1 -3 3
54 Santa Amalia 2 1 0 1 -8 3
55 Alcorcon 2 0 2 0 +0 2
56 Huesca 1 0 1 0 +0 1
57 Coruxo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
58 Eldense 1 0 1 0 +0 1
59 Utebo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
60 Dinamo San Juan 1 0 1 0 +0 1
61 Peña Deportiva 1 0 1 0 +0 1
62 Malaga 1 0 1 0 +0 1
63 Real Murcia 1 0 1 0 +0 1
64 Atlético Baleares 1 0 1 0 +0 1
65 Ourense CF 1 0 1 0 +0 1
66 Montilla 1 0 1 0 +0 1
67 Gernika 1 0 1 0 +0 1
68 Leganes 1 0 1 0 +0 1
69 Recreativo Huelva 1 0 1 0 +0 1
70 Burgos 1 0 1 0 +0 1
71 Mérida AD 2 0 1 1 -1 1
72 Atlético Paso 2 0 1 1 -1 1
73 Arnedo 2 0 1 1 -2 1
74 Juventud Torremolinos 2 0 1 1 -3 1
75 Rincón 2 0 1 1 -3 1
76 Autol 2 0 1 1 -6 1
77 Beasain 1 0 0 1 -1 0
78 Gimnástica Torrelavega 1 0 0 1 -1 0
79 Yeclano 1 0 0 1 -1 0
80 Cadiz 1 0 0 1 -1 0
81 San Roque Lepe 1 0 0 1 -1 0
82 Universitario FC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
83 Atlético Lugones 1 0 0 1 -1 0
84 Los Yébenes SB 1 0 0 1 -1 0
85 Ponferradina 1 0 0 1 -1 0
86 Unión Adarve 1 0 0 1 -1 0
87 Quintanar del Rey 1 0 0 1 -1 0
88 Turégano 1 0 0 1 -1 0
89 Amorebieta 1 0 0 1 -1 0
90 Ferrol 1 0 0 1 -1 0
91 Lugo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
92 Utrera 1 0 0 1 -1 0
93 Zaragoza 1 0 0 1 -1 0
94 Alfaro 1 0 0 1 -1 0
95 Cirbonero 1 0 0 1 -1 0
96 Teruel 1 0 0 1 -1 0
97 Lleida Esportiu 1 0 0 1 -1 0
98 Cardassar 1 0 0 1 -2 0
99 Hércules 1 0 0 1 -2 0
100 Manacor 1 0 0 1 -2 0
101 Navalcarnero 1 0 0 1 -2 0
102 Manresa 1 0 0 1 -2 0
103 Rayo Majadahonda 1 0 0 1 -2 0
104 La Coruna 1 0 0 1 -2 0
105 Racing Rioja 1 0 0 1 -2 0
106 Cristo Atlético 1 0 0 1 -2 0
107 Fuenlabrada 1 0 0 1 -2 0
108 Almazán 1 0 0 1 -2 0
109 Lealtad 1 0 0 1 -2 0
110 Vimenor 1 0 0 1 -2 0
111 San Juan 1 0 0 1 -2 0
112 Almeria 1 0 0 1 -2 0
113 Alzira 1 0 0 1 -2 0
114 Melilla CD 1 0 0 1 -3 0
115 Ceuta 6 de Junio 1 0 0 1 -3 0
116 Amigó 1 0 0 1 -3 0
117 Huétor Tájar 1 0 0 1 -3 0
118 Cordoba 1 0 0 1 -3 0
119 Las Rozas 1 0 0 1 -3 0
120 Olot 1 0 0 1 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Gernika Celta
23′
🟨 Franco Cervi
Gorka Marcos Sánchez 🟨
30′
31′
⚽ Carles Pérez 0–1
J. Strand Larsen
Half-time 0–1
51′
🟨 Fran Beltrán
55′
⚽ J. Aidoo 0–2
F. Cervi
56′
🔁 Iago Aspas
↦ F. Cervi
57′
🔁 L. de la Torre
↦ Gonçalo Paciência
Gorka Agirre 🔁
↦ Yeray Carpio
63′
Aitor Ortega 🔁
↦ Gorka Marcos
63′
Giovanni Navarro 🔁
↦ Josu Gallastegui
63′
68′
⚽ L. de la Torre 0–3
74′
🔁 Hugo Mallo
↦ Carles Pérez
74′
🔁 Óscar Rodríguez
↦ Fran Beltrán
L. Juwara 🔁
↦ Ibai Sanz
76′
76′
🔁 W. Swedberg
↦ Óscar Mingueza
Urtzi Iriondo 🔁
↦ Carlos González
84′
Full-time 0–3

Line-ups

Gernika

5-3-2
1 Jon Altamira G
21 Jon Vega D
18 Jon Agirrezabala D
5 Koldo Berasaluze D
4 Xabier Arberas D
17 Carlos González D
15 Antonio Salado M
10 Gorka Marcos M
7 Josu Gallastegui F
16 Yeray Carpio M
11 Ibai Sanz F
Bench (11)
8 Gorka Agirre
14 Aitor Ortega
20 Giovanni Navarro
19 L. Juwara
3 Urtzi Iriondo
6 Miguel de Luis
27 Eneko De Miguel
26 Paul Undabarrena
23 Ibai Asensio
28 Eneko García
13 V. Boian

Coach: Aitor Larrazábal

Celta

4-4-2
13 Iván Villar G
4 Unai Núñez D
15 J. Aidoo D
17 Javi Galán D
3 Óscar Mingueza D
11 F. Cervi M
8 Fran Beltrán M
28 Gabri Veiga M
9 Gonçalo Paciência F
7 Carles Pérez M
18 J. Strand Larsen F
Bench (11)
10 Iago Aspas
23 L. de la Torre
2 Hugo Mallo
5 Óscar Rodríguez
19 W. Swedberg
1 A. Marchesín
36 Fernando Medrano
26 Carlos Domínguez
35 Pablo Durán
21 A. Solari
20 Kevin Vázquez

Coach: Carlos Carvalhal

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Miguel Ortiz · 63 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,35 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.