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Copa del Rey

Referee: Francisco Hernández

Ourense CF

U S S

3–2

Full-time

Valladolid

T S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ourense CF Valladolid

Last 6 — all competitions · 3/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,0

3,3

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

0,7

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Copa del Rey · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,0

5,5

Scored

1,5

4,0

Conceded

0,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Ourense CF 18. · Valladolid 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vallecano	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Betis	3	3	0	0	+8	9
3	Osasuna	3	3	0	0	+7	9
4	Pontevedra	3	3	0	0	+7	9
5	Almeria	3	3	0	0	+5	9
6	Ath Madrid	3	3	0	0	+5	9
7	Getafe	3	2	1	0	+4	7
8	Celta	2	2	0	0	+11	6
9	Las Palmas	2	2	0	0	+8	6
10	Sociedad	2	2	0	0	+6	6
11	Valladolid	2	2	0	0	+5	6
12	Elche	2	2	0	0	+4	6
13	Valencia	2	2	0	0	+3	6
14	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+2	6
15	Barbastro	3	2	0	1	+2	6
16	Santander	2	2	0	0	+2	6
17	Huesca	3	2	0	1	+2	6
18	Ourense CF	2	2	0	0	+2	6
19	Eldense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
20	Cartagena	2	2	0	0	+2	6
21	Ferrol	3	2	0	1	+1	6
22	Marbella	3	2	0	1	+1	6
23	UD Logroñés	3	1	2	0	+1	5
24	Deportiva Minera	2	1	1	0	+5	4
25	Zaragoza	2	1	1	0	+4	4
26	Girona	2	1	1	0	+4	4
27	Estepona	2	1	1	0	+1	4
28	Granada	3	1	1	1	+1	4
29	Leganes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
30	Tenerife	3	1	1	1	+1	4
31	Alaves	2	1	1	0	+1	4
32	Castellon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
33	Zamora	2	1	1	0	+1	4
34	Orihuela	2	1	1	0	+1	4
35	Yeclano	2	1	0	1	+5	3
36	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	+4	3
37	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+4	3
38	Unionistas de Salamanca	2	1	0	1	+3	3
39	Burgos	2	1	0	1	+2	3
40	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+2	3
41	Vic	2	1	0	1	+2	3
42	Cadiz	2	1	0	1	+2	3
43	Barakaldo	2	1	0	1	+1	3
44	Cultural Leonesa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
45	Ceuta	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Europa Fc	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Andorra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Gimnastic	2	1	0	1	+0	3
49	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
50	Parla Escuela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
51	Conquense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
52	Chiclana	2	1	0	1	-1	3
53	Cacereño	2	1	0	1	-1	3
54	Astur	2	1	0	1	-1	3
55	Manises	2	1	0	1	-1	3
56	Sant Andreu	2	1	0	1	-1	3
57	Ejea	2	1	0	1	-1	3
58	UD San Pedro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
59	Villamuriel	2	1	0	1	-4	3
60	Salamanca UDS	2	1	0	1	-6	3
61	Ponferradina	2	0	2	0	+0	2
62	Cordoba	1	0	1	0	+0	1
63	Selaya	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Baztán	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Playas Sotavento	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Ath Bilbao	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Escobedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Oviedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	Olot	2	0	1	1	-2	1
70	Real Ávila	2	0	1	1	-2	1
71	San Tirso	2	0	1	1	-4	1
72	Gévora	2	0	1	1	-5	1
73	Ontiñena	2	0	1	1	-7	1
74	Lanzarote	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Malaga	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Langreo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Bergantiños	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	SS Reyes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Don Benito	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Numancia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Beasain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Atlético Paso	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Sonseca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Aurrerá Vitoria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Alcorcon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Xerez	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
101	Lleida Esportiu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
102	Dolorense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
103	Cuarte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Alfaro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Badalona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Promesas EDF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Cortes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Llanera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Móstoles	1	0	0	1	-3	0
110	Levante	1	0	0	1	-3	0
111	CD Coria	1	0	0	1	-3	0
112	Las Rozas	1	0	0	1	-3	0
113	Mallorca	1	0	0	1	-3	0
114	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-3	0
115	L'Hospitalet	1	0	0	1	-4	0
116	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
117	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-4	0
118	Amorebieta	1	0	0	1	-4	0
119	Sporting Mahón	1	0	0	1	-4	0
120	Extremadura 1924	1	0	0	1	-4	0
121	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
122	Tudelano	1	0	0	1	-5	0
123	Jove Español	1	0	0	1	-5	0
124	Laredo	1	0	0	1	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Pontevedra	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Barbastro	3	2	0	1	+2	6
3	UD Logroñés	3	1	2	0	+1	5
4	Estepona	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Almeria	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Vic	2	1	0	1	+2	3
7	Santander	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Ourense CF	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Europa Fc	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Marbella	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Conquense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Chiclana	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Cacereño	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Astur	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Sant Andreu	2	1	0	1	-1	3
16	Ejea	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	UD San Pedro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
18	Villamuriel	2	1	0	1	-4	3
19	Salamanca UDS	2	1	0	1	-6	3
20	Zaragoza	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Deportiva Minera	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Ponferradina	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Baztán	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Zamora	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Orihuela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Escobedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Olot	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Real Ávila	2	0	1	1	-2	1
29	San Tirso	2	0	1	1	-4	1
30	Gévora	2	0	1	1	-5	1
31	Lanzarote	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Ceuta	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Tenerife	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Cultural Leonesa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Barakaldo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Langreo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Bergantiños	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	SS Reyes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Don Benito	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Granada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Cadiz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Huesca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Numancia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Beasain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Gimnastic	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Atlético Paso	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Yeclano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Sonseca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Parla Escuela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Xerez	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Ferrol	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Lleida Esportiu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Dolorense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Cuarte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Alfaro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Badalona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Cortes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Llanera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Móstoles	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	CD Coria	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Las Rozas	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Manises	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	L'Hospitalet	1	0	0	1	-4	0
73	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
74	Extremadura 1924	1	0	0	1	-4	0
75	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
76	Tudelano	1	0	0	1	-5	0
77	Jove Español	1	0	0	1	-5	0
78	Laredo	1	0	0	1	-6	0
79	Ontiñena	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vallecano	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Betis	3	3	0	0	+8	9
3	Osasuna	3	3	0	0	+7	9
4	Ath Madrid	3	3	0	0	+5	9
5	Getafe	3	2	1	0	+4	7
6	Celta	2	2	0	0	+11	6
7	Las Palmas	2	2	0	0	+8	6
8	Sociedad	2	2	0	0	+6	6
9	Valladolid	2	2	0	0	+5	6
10	Elche	2	2	0	0	+4	6
11	Ferrol	2	2	0	0	+3	6
12	Valencia	2	2	0	0	+3	6
13	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+3	6
14	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+2	6
15	Almeria	2	2	0	0	+2	6
16	Eldense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
17	Cartagena	2	2	0	0	+2	6
18	Girona	2	1	1	0	+4	4
19	Granada	2	1	1	0	+2	4
20	Tenerife	2	1	1	0	+2	4
21	Leganes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
22	Alaves	2	1	1	0	+1	4
23	Castellon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
24	Yeclano	1	1	0	0	+6	3
25	Deportiva Minera	1	1	0	0	+5	3
26	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	+4	3
27	Zaragoza	1	1	0	0	+4	3
28	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	1	0	0	+4	3
29	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+4	3
30	Cadiz	1	1	0	0	+3	3
31	Burgos	2	1	0	1	+2	3
32	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+2	3
33	Barakaldo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Manises	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	Cultural Leonesa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
36	Santander	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Ourense CF	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Gimnastic	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Zamora	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Orihuela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Marbella	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Andorra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Parla Escuela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Ceuta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Cordoba	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Selaya	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Ontiñena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Playas Sotavento	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Ath Bilbao	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Ponferradina	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Oviedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Malaga	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Aurrerá Vitoria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Alcorcon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Promesas EDF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Levante	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Mallorca	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-4	0
68	Amorebieta	1	0	0	1	-4	0
69	Sporting Mahón	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ourense CF Valladolid

13′

🟨 A. Ndiaye

15′

⚽ Raúl Moro 0–1

S. Amallah

1–1 Jairo Noriega ⚽

G. Di Renzo

17′

24′

⚽ S. Amallah 1–2

Raúl Moro

2–2 Jerin Ramos ⚽

32′

Half-time 2–2

46′

🔁 André Ferreira

↦ K. Hein

48′

🔁 Mario Martín

↦ S. Jurić

3–2 Ángel Sánchez ⚽

Jairo Noriega

52′

61′

🔁 Iván Sánchez

↦ S. Amallah

61′

🔁 A. Tuhami

↦ Luis Pérez

61′

🔁 Juanmi Latasa

↦ Marcos André

65′

🟨 Anuar

A. Fidalgo 🟨

65′

67′

🟨 K. Perez

Álex Gil 🔁

↦ Alberto Gil

75′

Javier Carbonell 🔁

↦ G. Di Renzo

76′

Hugo Sanz 🔁

↦ Ángel Sánchez

82′

Xesc Fullana 🔁

↦ Jairo Noriega

82′

94′

🟨 M. Martin

Fran Carmona 🔁

↦ Raúl Prada

98′

Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Ourense CF

13 P. Guillén

15 Álex Zalaya

5 Miguel Prado

17 Raúl Prada

19 Moisés Rodríguez

8 Jerin Ramos

6 Alejandro Fidalgo

22 Jairo Noriega

9 G. Di Renzo

10 Alberto Gil

20 Ángel Sánchez

Bench (10)

11 Álex Gil

7 Javier Carbonell

3 Hugo Sanz

23 Xesc Fullana

4 Fran Carmona

2 Fernando Andrada

14 Iván del Olmo

21 Josema Raigal

1 Raúl Marqueta

16 Juanma Bravo

Coach: Pablo López

Valladolid

K. Hein

E. Cömert

Luis Pérez

C. Özkacar

David Torres

21 S. Amallah

S. Jurić

Kike Pérez

19 A. Ndiaye

9 Marcos André

Raúl Moro

Bench (11)

1 André Ferreira

12 Mario Martín

10 Iván Sánchez

23 A. Tuhami

14 Juanmi Latasa

5 Javi Sánchez

4 Víctor Meseguer

30 Raúl Chasco

32 Koke

35 J. Bah

28 Chuky

Coach: D. Cocca

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

–

🔒

–

🔒

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

–

🔒

U1,5

–

🔒

O2,5 ✓

–

🔒

U2,5

–

🔒

O3,5 ✓

–

🔒

U3,5

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja ✓

–

🔒

BLS nei

–

🔒

Recent matches

4. Dec CDR 1 year ago

29. Oct CDR 1 year ago

13. Nov CDR 3 years ago

Referee

Francisco Hernández · 50 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards

5,0 / match

Above average

⚽ Free kicks

26,5 / match

Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match report

Line-ups

Ourense CF

Valladolid

Odds comparison

Recent matches

Referee