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Copa del Rey
Referee: Miguel González
Ourense CF
1–1
Full-time
Alcorcon
T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Villarreal 1 1 0 0 +9 3
2 Mallorca 1 1 0 0 +6 3
3 Celta 1 1 0 0 +5 3
4 Levante 1 1 0 0 +4 3
5 Osasuna 1 1 0 0 +3 3
6 Albacete 1 1 0 0 +3 3
7 Elche 1 1 0 0 +3 3
8 Cacereño 1 1 0 0 +3 3
9 Espanol 1 1 0 0 +3 3
10 Eibar 1 1 0 0 +3 3
11 La Nucía 1 1 0 0 +2 3
12 Andorra 1 1 0 0 +2 3
13 UD Logroñés 1 1 0 0 +2 3
14 Pontevedra 1 1 0 0 +2 3
15 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1 1 0 0 +2 3
16 Vallecano 1 1 0 0 +2 3
17 Valladolid 1 1 0 0 +2 3
18 Guijuelo 1 1 0 0 +2 3
19 Gimnastic 1 1 0 0 +2 3
20 Ibiza 1 1 0 0 +2 3
21 CD Coria 1 1 0 0 +2 3
22 Ath Madrid 1 1 0 0 +2 3
23 Tenerife 1 1 0 0 +2 3
24 Mirandes 1 1 0 0 +2 3
25 Sevilla 1 1 0 0 +2 3
26 Sp Gijon 1 1 0 0 +1 3
27 Oviedo 1 1 0 0 +1 3
28 Cazalegas 1 1 0 0 +1 3
29 Guadalajara 1 1 0 0 +1 3
30 Linares Deportivo 1 1 0 0 +1 3
31 Girona 1 1 0 0 +1 3
32 Saguntino 1 1 0 0 +1 3
33 Sestao River 1 1 0 0 +1 3
34 Arenas Getxo 1 1 0 0 +1 3
35 Ceuta 1 1 0 0 +1 3
36 Diocesano 1 1 0 0 +1 3
37 Cartagena 1 1 0 0 +1 3
38 Intercity 1 1 0 0 +1 3
39 Las Palmas 1 1 0 0 +1 3
40 Mollerussa 2 1 0 1 +0 3
41 Fuentes 2 1 0 1 +0 3
42 Alcora 2 1 0 1 +0 3
43 Barbadás 2 1 0 1 -1 3
44 Velarde 2 1 0 1 -1 3
45 Algar 2 1 0 1 -2 3
46 Santa Amalia 2 1 0 1 -8 3
47 Juventud Torremolinos 1 0 1 0 +0 1
48 Huesca 1 0 1 0 +0 1
49 Dinamo San Juan 1 0 1 0 +0 1
50 Peña Deportiva 1 0 1 0 +0 1
51 Malaga 1 0 1 0 +0 1
52 Atlético Paso 1 0 1 0 +0 1
53 Real Murcia 1 0 1 0 +0 1
54 Arnedo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
55 Atlético Baleares 1 0 1 0 +0 1
56 Montilla 1 0 1 0 +0 1
57 Gernika 1 0 1 0 +0 1
58 Leganes 1 0 1 0 +0 1
59 Recreativo Huelva 1 0 1 0 +0 1
60 Burgos 1 0 1 0 +0 1
61 Rincón 2 0 1 1 -3 1
62 Autol 2 0 1 1 -6 1
63 Beasain 1 0 0 1 -1 0
64 Gimnástica Torrelavega 1 0 0 1 -1 0
65 Universitario FC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
66 Atlético Lugones 1 0 0 1 -1 0
67 Los Yébenes SB 1 0 0 1 -1 0
68 Ponferradina 1 0 0 1 -1 0
69 Unión Adarve 1 0 0 1 -1 0
70 Quintanar del Rey 1 0 0 1 -1 0
71 Turégano 1 0 0 1 -1 0
72 Amorebieta 1 0 0 1 -1 0
73 Ferrol 1 0 0 1 -1 0
74 Lugo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
75 Utrera 1 0 0 1 -1 0
76 Zaragoza 1 0 0 1 -1 0
77 Alfaro 1 0 0 1 -1 0
78 Cirbonero 1 0 0 1 -1 0
79 Teruel 1 0 0 1 -1 0
80 Cardassar 1 0 0 1 -2 0
81 Hércules 1 0 0 1 -2 0
82 Manacor 1 0 0 1 -2 0
83 Navalcarnero 1 0 0 1 -2 0
84 Manresa 1 0 0 1 -2 0
85 Rayo Majadahonda 1 0 0 1 -2 0
86 La Coruna 1 0 0 1 -2 0
87 Racing Rioja 1 0 0 1 -2 0
88 Cristo Atlético 1 0 0 1 -2 0
89 Fuenlabrada 1 0 0 1 -2 0
90 Almazán 1 0 0 1 -2 0
91 Lealtad 1 0 0 1 -2 0
92 Vimenor 1 0 0 1 -2 0
93 Melilla CD 1 0 0 1 -3 0
94 Ceuta 6 de Junio 1 0 0 1 -3 0
95 Amigó 1 0 0 1 -3 0
96 Huétor Tájar 1 0 0 1 -3 0
97 Cordoba 1 0 0 1 -3 0
98 Las Rozas 1 0 0 1 -3 0
99 Olot 1 0 0 1 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ourense CF Alcorcon
N. Farina 🟨
14′
1–0 E. Nwenyi ⚽
Manu Rodríguez Pérez
38′
Half-time 1–0
56′
🟨 O. Rivas Viondi
Iván Guerrero 🔁
↦ Nacho Fariña
60′
60′
🔁 Álvaro Bustos
↦ Berlanga
60′
🔁 Iker Recio
↦ Víctor García
73′
🔁 Yago
↦ Álvaro Yuste
Manu Rodríguez Morgade 🔁
↦ Tiago Rodríguez
79′
Borja Domingo 🔁
↦ A. Abaradan
86′
Francisco Varela 🔁
↦ Alberto Gil
86′
86′
🔁 Juanma Bravo
↦ Berto González
86′
🔁 Chiki
↦ Javi Ribelles
Manu 🟨
90′
90′
⚽ Antonio Moyano 1–1
Adrián Dalmau
T. Kanteh 🟥
93′
Israel Pérez 🔁
↦ Rubén Sánchez
100′
J. Ramos 🟨
102′
105′
🔁 Javi Castro
↦ Adrián Dalmau
120′
🟨 P. Garcia
121′
⚽ Chiki 1–2
2–2 Borja Domingo ⚽
122′
123′
🟨 A. Moyano
123′
🟨 A. Bustos
123′
⚽ Óscar Rivas 2–3
Jerin Ramos ❌
penalty missed
124′
125′
⚽ Álvaro Bustos 2–4
3–4 Manu Rodríguez Pérez ⚽
126′
127′
⚽ Pablo García 3–5
Hugo Sanz ❌
penalty missed
128′
Full-time 3–5

Line-ups

Ourense CF

1 Raúl Marqueta
8 Jerin Ramos
4 M. Kanteh
5 E. Nwenyi
3 Hugo Sanz
21 Manu Rodríguez Pérez
10 Rubén Sánchez
17 Alberto Gil
14 Nacho Fariña
6 Tiago Rodríguez
7 A. Abaradan
Bench (9)
12 Iván Guerrero
15 Manu Rodríguez Morgade
9 Borja Domingo
16 Francisco Varela
2 Israel Pérez
13 Dani Sampayo
11 Sergio Arribas
19 Gabri Palmás
22 Xián

Coach: Rubén Domínguez

Alcorcon

13 Andrés Prieto
17 Víctor García
4 Óscar Rivas
26 Emi Hernández
18 Pablo García
27 Álvaro Yuste
16 Javi Ribelles
8 Antonio Moyano
23 Adrián Dalmau
11 Berto González
32 Berlanga
Bench (8)
7 Álvaro Bustos
29 Iker Recio
28 Yago
10 Juanma Bravo
9 Chiki
2 Javi Castro
1 Chus Ruiz
30 Nepo

Coach: Fran Fernández

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

No matches played yet.

Referee

Miguel González · 44 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.