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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernández

Sevilla

T U S U U

1–4

Full-time

Barcelona

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sevilla Barcelona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,0

4,8

Scored

1,2

3,5

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 48%

32%

64%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

36%

77%

Both score Ø 62%

55%

68%

Average goals

2,5

3,8

Scored

1,1

2,7

Conceded

1,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,79 xG 1,93

40% Possession 60%

8 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 6

3 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 6

5 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sevilla 13. · Barcelona 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	23	15	5	3	+29	+24.2	50
2	Ath Madrid	23	14	7	2	+23	+19.6	49
3	Barcelona	22	14	3	5	+36	+26.5	45
4	Ath Bilbao	23	12	8	3	+16	+14.1	44
5	Villarreal	23	11	7	5	+12	+15.4	40
6	Vallecano	23	9	8	6	+3	+2.0	35
7	Sociedad	23	9	4	10	+0	+3.7	31
8	Girona	23	9	4	10	-2	-0.4	31
9	Osasuna	22	7	9	6	-4	-7.5	30
10	Mallorca	22	9	3	10	-9	-1.8	30
11	Betis	23	7	8	8	-4	+2.3	29
12	Celta	23	8	4	11	-3	+5.3	28
13	Sevilla	22	7	7	8	-6	-3.4	28
14	Getafe	23	6	9	8	+1	-4.7	27
15	Las Palmas	23	6	5	12	-10	-21.4	23
16	Espanol	23	6	5	12	-13	-18.2	23
17	Leganes	23	5	8	10	-13	-22.1	23
18	Valencia	23	5	7	11	-13	-8.6	22
19	Alaves	23	5	6	12	-10	-2.9	21
20	Valladolid	23	4	3	16	-33	-22.0	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	12	9	3	0	+16	+18.3	30
2	Real Madrid	11	9	1	1	+18	+17.2	28
3	Ath Bilbao	12	7	4	1	+12	+9.2	25
4	Celta	12	7	2	3	+8	+5.3	23
5	Osasuna	12	6	4	2	+5	+1.4	22
6	Barcelona	10	7	0	3	+19	+19.1	21
7	Espanol	12	6	3	3	+3	-4.4	21
8	Villarreal	11	5	4	2	+9	+8.0	19
9	Girona	11	6	1	4	+5	+7.0	19
10	Valencia	12	5	3	4	+4	+1.8	18
11	Vallecano	11	5	3	3	+2	+6.4	18
12	Sevilla	11	5	3	3	+0	+2.0	18
13	Betis	11	4	5	2	+2	+9.7	17
14	Sociedad	12	5	2	5	-1	+3.6	17
15	Getafe	12	3	7	2	+3	+3.0	16
16	Mallorca	11	4	3	4	-3	-2.5	15
17	Las Palmas	12	3	4	5	-2	-5.6	13
18	Alaves	11	3	4	4	-2	+0.2	13
19	Leganes	11	4	1	6	-7	-7.8	13
20	Valladolid	11	3	3	5	-8	-7.4	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	7	3	2	+17	+7.4	24
2	Real Madrid	12	6	4	2	+11	+7.0	22
3	Villarreal	12	6	3	3	+3	+7.4	21
4	Ath Madrid	11	5	4	2	+7	+1.2	19
5	Ath Bilbao	11	5	4	2	+4	+4.9	19
6	Vallecano	12	4	5	3	+1	-4.4	17
7	Mallorca	11	5	0	6	-6	+0.8	15
8	Sociedad	11	4	2	5	+1	+0.2	14
9	Betis	12	3	3	6	-6	-7.4	12
10	Girona	12	3	3	6	-7	-7.4	12
11	Getafe	11	3	2	6	-2	-7.8	11
12	Sevilla	11	2	4	5	-6	-5.4	10
13	Leganes	12	1	7	4	-6	-14.3	10
14	Las Palmas	11	3	1	7	-8	-15.8	10
15	Alaves	12	2	2	8	-8	-3.1	8
16	Osasuna	10	1	5	4	-9	-8.9	8
17	Celta	11	1	2	8	-11	-0.0	5
18	Valencia	11	0	4	7	-17	-10.4	4
19	Valladolid	12	1	0	11	-25	-14.6	3
20	Espanol	11	0	2	9	-16	-13.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.