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La Liga

Referee: A Ruiz

Ath Madrid

S T S T U

4–2

Full-time

Espanol

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Espanol

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 48%

54%

42%

Points per game

1,9

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

42%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

46%

54%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

1,6

1,2

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,12 xG 1,06

61% Possession 39%

18 Shots 8

9 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 4. · Espanol 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	25	19	3	3	+33	+29.3	60
2	Barcelona	24	19	1	4	+39	+29.9	58
3	Villarreal	24	15	3	6	+19	+7.8	48
4	Ath Madrid	24	13	6	5	+17	+9.6	45
5	Betis	25	11	9	5	+10	+8.4	42
6	Espanol	24	10	5	9	-4	+1.3	35
7	Celta	24	8	10	6	+5	+2.9	34
8	Ath Bilbao	25	10	4	11	-6	+9.8	34
9	Osasuna	25	9	6	10	+1	-4.4	33
10	Sociedad	25	8	8	9	-1	-0.2	32
11	Getafe	24	8	5	11	-8	-6.3	29
12	Girona	24	7	8	9	-14	-10.1	29
13	Sevilla	24	7	5	12	-8	-14.0	26
14	Vallecano	24	6	8	10	-9	-0.0	26
15	Alaves	24	7	5	12	-9	-1.6	26
16	Valencia	24	6	8	10	-12	-1.5	26
17	Elche	25	5	10	10	-5	-18.3	25
18	Mallorca	24	6	6	12	-10	-14.1	24
19	Levante	24	4	6	14	-15	-10.7	18
20	Oviedo	24	3	8	13	-23	-17.7	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	11	0	0	+29	+18.0	33
2	Real Madrid	12	11	0	1	+21	+18.1	33
3	Ath Madrid	12	10	1	1	+18	+13.8	31
4	Villarreal	12	9	1	2	+17	+6.1	28
5	Osasuna	12	7	3	2	+8	+3.2	24
6	Betis	12	7	2	3	+10	+6.9	23
7	Ath Bilbao	13	7	2	4	+2	+10.3	23
8	Elche	13	5	6	2	+7	-3.3	21
9	Sociedad	13	6	3	4	+4	+1.7	21
10	Espanol	13	6	2	5	-2	-0.0	20
11	Mallorca	12	5	4	3	+3	-0.4	19
12	Alaves	12	5	3	4	+1	+1.5	18
13	Valencia	12	4	5	3	+2	+8.1	17
14	Girona	12	4	4	4	-7	-7.5	16
15	Vallecano	11	3	6	2	+2	+6.3	15
16	Getafe	12	4	3	5	+0	-3.1	15
17	Sevilla	13	4	3	6	-1	-4.1	15
18	Celta	12	3	5	4	+2	+2.9	14
19	Oviedo	12	2	5	5	-8	-9.4	11
20	Levante	12	1	4	7	-12	-7.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	13	8	3	2	+12	+11.2	27
2	Barcelona	13	8	1	4	+10	+11.9	25
3	Celta	12	5	5	2	+3	+0.0	20
4	Villarreal	12	6	2	4	+2	+1.7	20
5	Betis	13	4	7	2	+0	+1.5	19
6	Espanol	11	4	3	4	-2	+1.3	15
7	Ath Madrid	12	3	5	4	-1	-4.3	14
8	Getafe	12	4	2	6	-8	-3.1	14
9	Girona	12	3	4	5	-7	-2.6	13
10	Levante	12	3	2	7	-3	-3.7	11
11	Sociedad	12	2	5	5	-5	-1.9	11
12	Sevilla	11	3	2	6	-7	-9.9	11
13	Ath Bilbao	12	3	2	7	-8	-0.4	11
14	Vallecano	13	3	2	8	-11	-6.4	11
15	Osasuna	13	2	3	8	-7	-7.6	9
16	Valencia	12	2	3	7	-14	-9.7	9
17	Alaves	12	2	2	8	-10	-3.2	8
18	Oviedo	12	1	3	8	-15	-8.4	6
19	Mallorca	12	1	2	9	-13	-13.7	5
20	Elche	12	0	4	8	-12	-15.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.