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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Miguel Fonseca

Penafiel

U S S T S

2–3

Full-time

Lusitânia

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Penafiel Lusitânia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/5 matches

Win Ø 55%

50%

60%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 74%

67%

80%

Both score Ø 74%

67%

80%

Average goals

3,7

3,4

Scored

2,3

1,6

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,2

This season — Taça de Portugal · 1/2 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

5,0

3,0

Scored

4,0

2,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+3,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Penafiel 30. · Lusitânia 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Amarante	3	3	0	0	+10	9
2	Cinfães	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Rebordosa	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	São João Ver	3	2	1	0	+4	7
5	Vila Real	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Brito	3	2	1	0	+2	7
7	SC Covilha	2	2	0	0	+5	6
8	Alverca	2	2	0	0	+4	6
9	Chaves	2	2	0	0	+4	6
10	Varzim	2	2	0	0	+4	6
11	Anadia	3	2	0	1	+3	6
12	Moncarapachense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
13	União de Leiria	2	2	0	0	+3	6
14	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
15	Oliveira Hospital	2	2	0	0	+3	6
16	União Santarém	3	2	0	1	+2	6
17	Moura	3	2	0	1	+2	6
18	CF Os Belenenses	3	2	0	1	+2	6
19	Lusitânia	2	2	0	0	+2	6
20	Leixoes	2	2	0	0	+2	6
21	Lusitânia Lourosa	3	2	0	1	+0	6
22	Maria da Fonte	3	2	0	1	-3	6
23	Sanjoanense	3	1	1	1	+3	4
24	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
25	O Elvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
26	Caldas	3	1	1	1	+0	4
27	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+5	3
28	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+5	3
29	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
30	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
31	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	3
32	Alcains	2	1	0	1	+2	3
33	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+2	3
34	Farense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	Alpendorada	2	1	0	1	+2	3
36	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+2	3
38	Estrela	1	1	0	0	+2	3
39	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+2	3
40	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
41	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	3
42	AVS	1	1	0	0	+2	3
43	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	3
44	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
45	Atlético CP	2	1	0	1	+1	3
46	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
47	Machico	2	1	0	1	+1	3
48	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
49	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
51	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+1	3
54	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
55	Os Limianos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Torreense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	1º Dezembro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	Aliança de Gandra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
65	Vieira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
66	Mafra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
67	Lagoa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
68	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
69	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
70	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	-1	3
71	Atlético Arcos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
72	Sandinenses	2	1	0	1	-1	3
73	CF Benfica	2	1	0	1	-2	3
74	Paredes	2	1	0	1	-2	3
75	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
76	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
77	Pêro Pinheiro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
78	Amora	2	1	0	1	-4	3
79	Lajense	3	1	0	2	-5	3
80	AD Marco 09	2	0	2	0	+0	2
81	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	0	2	0	+0	2
82	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
83	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
84	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
85	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
86	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
87	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	1
88	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
89	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
90	União de Coimbra	2	0	1	1	-2	1
91	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
111	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
112	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
113	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
114	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
115	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
116	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
117	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
118	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
119	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
126	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
127	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
128	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
129	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
130	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
131	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
132	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
134	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
135	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
136	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
137	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
138	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
139	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
140	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
141	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
142	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
143	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
144	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
145	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
146	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brito	3	2	1	0	+2	7
2	SC Covilha	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Cinfães	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Rebordosa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Moncarapachense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Varzim	2	2	0	0	+4	6
8	Moura	2	2	0	0	+3	6
9	Oliveira Hospital	2	2	0	0	+3	6
10	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
11	União Santarém	3	2	0	1	+2	6
12	Vila Real	2	1	1	0	+2	4
13	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+5	3
14	Alcains	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Machico	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Alpendorada	2	1	0	1	+2	3
19	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Vieira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Anadia	2	1	0	1	+1	3
23	Atlético CP	2	1	0	1	+1	3
24	CF Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	CF Os Belenenses	2	1	0	1	+1	3
27	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	Lusitânia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Aliança de Gandra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	1º Dezembro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Lajense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Caldas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Lagoa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
43	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	-1	3
44	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
45	Maria da Fonte	2	1	0	1	-4	3
46	Amora	2	1	0	1	-4	3
47	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	0	2	0	+0	2
48	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	União de Coimbra	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Arronches e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Sandinenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
76	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
77	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
78	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
79	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
80	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
81	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Amarante	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Sanjoanense	2	1	1	0	+5	4
3	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+5	3
5	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+5	3
6	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
7	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Arronches e Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Os Limianos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Farense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Estrela	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	AVS	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
25	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Cinfães	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Lusitânia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Torreense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Mafra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Atlético Arcos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
46	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
47	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	São João Ver	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	O Elvas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Louletano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Aliança de Gandra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Moura	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Vieira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Machico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
90	CF Benfica	1	0	0	1	-3	0
91	Paredes	1	0	0	1	-3	0
92	Pêro Pinheiro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
93	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
94	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
95	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
96	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
97	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
98	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
99	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
100	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
101	Lajense	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.