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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Ricardo Baixinho

Lusitânia

T S

1–4

Full-time

Benfica

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lusitânia Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 2/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

40% Possession 60%

5 Shots 18

3 Shots on target 8

0 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 4

2 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Felgueiras 1932	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Academica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	CD Olivais e Moscavide	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Sintrense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	FC Serpa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Rebordosa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+13	4
9	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	1	0	+7	4
10	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+4	4
11	Valadares Gaia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
12	Montalegre	2	1	1	0	+2	4
13	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	1	1	0	+2	4
14	Pêro Pinheiro	2	1	1	0	+1	4
15	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+12	3
16	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+9	3
17	Amora	2	1	0	1	+7	3
18	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+5	3
19	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+5	3
20	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+5	3
21	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
22	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+5	3
23	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	+4	3
24	Moncarapachense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
25	Vilar de Perdizes	1	1	0	0	+4	3
26	Vila Meã	1	1	0	0	+3	3
27	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+3	3
28	Mirandela	1	1	0	0	+3	3
29	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+3	3
30	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
31	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	AD Marco 09	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
36	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	Feirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
38	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+1	3
41	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Quarteirense SAD	2	1	0	1	+1	3
43	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Lusitânia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Santa Maria FC	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
49	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
51	AVS	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
54	Tocha	2	1	0	1	+0	3
55	Sandinenses	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Alqueidão da Serra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
58	Fabril Barreiro	2	1	0	1	-1	3
59	Ribeirão	2	1	0	1	-1	3
60	Florgrade	2	1	0	1	-2	3
61	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
62	União Micaelense	2	1	0	1	-3	3
63	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	-3	3
64	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-3	3
65	Peniche	2	0	2	0	+0	2
66	Atlético Arcos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Atlético Malveira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
70	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
71	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
72	Oliveirense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
73	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
74	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
75	SC Covilha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
76	Atlético CP	1	0	1	0	+0	1
77	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
78	Sanjoanense	2	0	1	1	-1	1
79	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
80	Os Limianos	2	0	1	1	-4	1
81	CF Oliveira Douro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	União de Tomar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Gouveia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
100	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
101	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
102	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
103	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Brito	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
115	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
116	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
117	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-3	0
118	Luzense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
119	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
120	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
121	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
122	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
123	Gafetense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
124	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
125	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
126	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
127	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
128	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-12	0
129	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Academica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Valadares Gaia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
3	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+13	3
5	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+9	3
6	Amora	1	1	0	0	+8	3
7	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+6	3
8	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+5	3
9	Moncarapachense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
10	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+4	3
11	Vilar de Perdizes	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+4	3
13	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
14	Florgrade	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+1	3
19	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Lusitânia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	União Micaelense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
26	Alqueidão da Serra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
27	Rebordosa	2	1	0	1	-1	3
28	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
29	Peniche	2	0	2	0	+0	2
30	Atlético Arcos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Os Limianos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Pêro Pinheiro	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Atlético CP	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
38	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	União de Tomar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Quarteirense SAD	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Sandinenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Brito	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Ribeirão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
63	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-3	0
65	Luzense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Pombal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
67	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
68	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
69	Gafetense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
70	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
71	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	CD Olivais e Moscavide	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Montalegre	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+12	3
5	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+7	3
6	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+5	3
7	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
8	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+5	3
9	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	+4	3
10	Vila Meã	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Mirandela	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	AD Marco 09	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Tocha	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Quarteirense SAD	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Feirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Ribeirão	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Pombal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Santa Maria FC	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Fabril Barreiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	AVS	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	-3	3
41	Atlético Malveira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Sanjoanense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Paredes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Oliveirense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	SC Covilha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	CF Oliveira Douro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Gouveia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	União Micaelense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
71	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-4	0
72	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
73	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
74	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
75	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
76	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
77	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
78	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.