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Taça de Portugal

Lusitânia

1–0

Full-time

Os Marialvas

S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lusitânia Os Marialvas

Last 6 — all competitions · 1/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

5,0

4,0

Scored

2,0

Conceded

3,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Rebordosa	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+13	3
3	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	1	0	0	+10	3
4	Amora	1	1	0	0	+8	3
5	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+7	3
6	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+6	3
7	Oliveira Hospital	1	1	0	0	+5	3
8	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
9	Vilar de Perdizes	1	1	0	0	+4	3
10	Valadares Gaia	1	1	0	0	+4	3
11	Academica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Juventude Évora	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Florgrade	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Vianense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Salgueiros	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Quarteirense SAD	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Montalegre	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Fontinhas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Ribeirão	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Pombal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Alqueidão da Serra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Castrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	AVS	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	União Micaelense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Tocha	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Fabril Barreiro	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Sanjoanense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Os Limianos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Paredes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Pêro Pinheiro	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Peniche	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
52	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
78	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
79	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
80	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
81	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
82	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
83	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
84	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
85	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
86	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
87	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+13	3
2	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	1	0	0	+10	3
3	Amora	1	1	0	0	+8	3
4	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+6	3
5	Vilar de Perdizes	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Valadares Gaia	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Academica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Juventude Évora	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Florgrade	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Salgueiros	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Alqueidão da Serra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Castrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	União Micaelense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
19	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Os Limianos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Pêro Pinheiro	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Peniche	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
25	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
33	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
35	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
36	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
37	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
38	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
39	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
40	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
42	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
43	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
44	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+7	3
2	Oliveira Hospital	1	1	0	0	+5	3
3	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
4	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Vianense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Tocha	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Quarteirense SAD	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Montalegre	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Fontinhas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Ribeirão	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Pombal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Fabril Barreiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	AVS	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Sanjoanense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Paredes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
36	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
37	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
38	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
39	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
40	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
41	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
42	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
43	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
44	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
45	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
46	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lusitânia Os Marialvas

🟥

38′

Half-time 0–0

70′

🟥

1–0 ⚽

98′

Full-time 1–0

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

–

🔒

–

🔒

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5

–

🔒

U1,5 ✓

–

🔒

O2,5

–

🔒

U2,5 ✓

–

🔒

O3,5

–

🔒

U3,5 ✓

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja

–

🔒

BLS nei ✓

–

🔒

Recent matches

9. Sep TP 4 years ago

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match report

Odds comparison

Recent matches