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Bundesliga

Referee: F Jager

Grazer AK

T S S S T

1–1

Full-time

Ried

T S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Grazer AK Ried

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 33%

27%

38%

Points per game

1,1

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

58%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

62%

54%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

0,77 xG 2,21

46% Possession 54%

13 Shots 18

2 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 8

4 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Grazer AK 10. · Ried 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	26	14	4	8	+12	+9.2	46
2	LASK	26	13	5	8	+4	+8.7	44
3	Salzburg	26	11	8	7	+15	+9.3	41
4	SK Rapid	26	11	7	8	+2	-3.5	40
5	Austria Vienna	26	12	4	10	-1	+0.4	40
6	Altach	26	9	9	8	+1	-5.3	36
7	Hartberg	26	8	11	7	+3	-8.3	35
8	Ried	26	10	5	11	-3	-3.0	35
9	Tirol	26	9	7	10	-7	+1.2	34
10	Grazer AK	26	7	8	11	-8	+1.1	29
11	Wolfsberger AC	26	7	7	12	-5	-12.4	28
12	BW Linz	26	6	3	17	-13	+2.5	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Altach	13	7	5	1	+7	+0.8	26
2	LASK	13	8	2	3	+6	+6.7	26
3	Tirol	13	6	3	4	+2	+2.6	21
4	Ried	13	6	3	4	+1	+1.1	21
5	Grazer AK	13	5	5	3	+2	+3.2	20
6	SK Rapid	13	6	2	5	+2	-2.4	20
7	Salzburg	13	5	3	5	+6	+4.3	18
8	Sturm Graz	13	5	3	5	-2	+2.6	18
9	Austria Vienna	13	5	3	5	-4	+0.4	18
10	Wolfsberger AC	13	4	5	4	+2	-3.0	17
11	BW Linz	13	5	1	7	+2	+5.0	16
12	Hartberg	13	4	4	5	+0	-1.7	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	13	9	1	3	+14	+6.7	28
2	Salzburg	13	6	5	2	+9	+5.0	23
3	Austria Vienna	13	7	1	5	+3	-0.1	22
4	SK Rapid	13	5	5	3	+0	-1.1	20
5	Hartberg	13	4	7	2	+3	-6.6	19
6	LASK	13	5	3	5	-2	+2.1	18
7	Ried	13	4	2	7	-4	-4.1	14
8	Tirol	13	3	4	6	-9	-1.4	13
9	Wolfsberger AC	13	3	2	8	-7	-9.4	11
10	Altach	13	2	4	7	-6	-6.1	10
11	Grazer AK	13	2	3	8	-10	-2.1	9
12	BW Linz	13	1	2	10	-15	-2.5	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.