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Ligue 1

Referee: J Pignard

Lens

U S T S T

3–2

Full-time

Toulouse

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lens Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,5

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 28/29 matches

Win Ø 51%

68%

34%

Points per game

2,1

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

68%

48%

Both score Ø 46%

50%

41%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,9

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

3,76 xG 0,41

78% Possession 22%

41 Shots 5

13 Shots on target 2

10 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 10

14 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Lens 2. · Toulouse 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	27	20	3	4	+38	+35.0	63
2	Lens	28	19	2	7	+27	+16.8	59
3	Lille	29	16	5	8	+15	+15.0	53
4	Marseille	29	16	4	9	+20	+14.2	52
5	Lyon	29	15	6	8	+14	+6.1	51
6	Rennes	29	14	8	7	+8	+1.0	50
7	Monaco	29	15	4	10	+7	+7.6	49
8	Strasbourg	28	12	7	9	+12	+12.5	43
9	Lorient	29	9	11	9	-6	-1.5	38
10	Toulouse	29	10	7	12	+0	+1.7	37
11	Brest	28	10	6	12	-6	-2.5	36
12	Paris FC	29	8	11	10	-8	-13.0	35
13	Angers	29	9	6	14	-14	-18.9	33
14	Le Havre	29	6	11	12	-13	-12.2	29
15	Nice	29	7	7	15	-22	-15.4	28
16	Auxerre	29	5	9	15	-14	-7.7	24
17	Nantes	28	4	7	17	-21	-14.3	19
18	Metz	29	3	6	20	-37	-24.2	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	14	12	0	2	+22	+16.9	36
2	Paris SG	13	11	1	1	+26	+18.3	34
3	Marseille	15	10	3	2	+19	+12.4	33
4	Lyon	14	10	1	3	+13	+7.3	31
5	Monaco	15	10	1	4	+11	+8.2	31
6	Rennes	15	8	4	3	+11	+7.3	28
7	Strasbourg	14	8	3	3	+14	+15.1	27
8	Lille	14	8	3	3	+9	+11.5	27
9	Lorient	14	7	6	1	+7	+5.0	27
10	Brest	14	7	3	4	+6	+7.2	24
11	Le Havre	15	5	7	3	+3	+0.8	22
12	Angers	14	6	3	5	+1	-4.8	21
13	Toulouse	15	5	5	5	+0	+5.2	20
14	Paris FC	14	5	4	5	-3	-3.7	19
15	Nice	15	4	6	5	-8	-4.0	18
16	Auxerre	15	4	4	7	-2	+0.5	16
17	Metz	14	2	4	8	-10	-1.3	10
18	Nantes	14	2	2	10	-12	-7.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	9	2	3	+12	+16.7	29
2	Lille	15	8	2	5	+6	+3.5	26
3	Lens	14	7	2	5	+5	-0.2	23
4	Rennes	14	6	4	4	-3	-6.3	22
5	Lyon	15	5	5	5	+1	-1.1	20
6	Marseille	14	6	1	7	+1	+1.8	19
7	Monaco	14	5	3	6	-4	-0.7	18
8	Toulouse	14	5	2	7	+0	-3.6	17
9	Strasbourg	14	4	4	6	-2	-2.6	16
10	Paris FC	15	3	7	5	-5	-9.4	16
11	Brest	14	3	3	8	-12	-9.7	12
12	Angers	15	3	3	9	-15	-14.1	12
13	Nantes	14	2	5	7	-9	-6.9	11
14	Lorient	15	2	5	8	-13	-6.5	11
15	Nice	14	3	1	10	-14	-11.5	10
16	Auxerre	14	1	5	8	-12	-8.2	8
17	Le Havre	14	1	4	9	-16	-13.0	7
18	Metz	15	1	2	12	-27	-22.9	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.