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Championship

Referee: Will Finnie

Millwall

S S S T T

4–0

Full-time

Bolton

T S U T T

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Bolton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

50%

25%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 38%

25%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

39% Possession 61%

12 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 9

8 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Millwall 12. · Bolton 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Swansea	4	3	1	0	+6	+1.4	10
2	QPR	4	3	1	0	+4	+2.0	10
3	Charlton	5	3	1	1	-1	-4.4	10
4	Southampton	5	2	2	1	+5	+3.1	8
5	Wolves	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.9	7
6	Middlesbrough	4	2	1	1	+2	+3.4	7
7	West Brom	4	2	1	1	+1	-1.9	7
8	Bristol City	4	2	1	1	+1	-4.2	7
9	Sheffield United	4	1	3	0	+1	-0.5	6
10	Birmingham	4	1	3	0	+1	+1.2	6
11	Stoke	5	2	0	3	-1	-1.7	6
12	Millwall	4	2	0	2	-2	+2.3	6
13	Wrexham	4	1	2	1	+2	+1.6	5
14	West Ham	4	1	2	1	+1	+0.5	5
15	Blackburn	5	1	2	2	-1	-3.3	5
16	Watford	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.5	5
17	Lincoln	5	1	2	2	-2	+0.4	5
18	Bolton	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.1	4
19	Derby	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.6	4
20	Cardiff	4	0	3	1	-1	+0.8	3
21	Norwich	4	1	0	3	-2	+0.4	3
22	Portsmouth	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.2	3
23	Preston	5	1	0	4	-5	+0.8	3
24	Burnley	4	0	2	2	-5	-0.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Southampton	2	2	0	0	+6	+3.7	6
2	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.6	6
3	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.9	6
4	Charlton	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.6	6
5	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
6	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.4	4
7	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.9	4
8	Sheffield United	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.5	4
9	Watford	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
10	QPR	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.6	4
11	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.0	3
12	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.2	3
13	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.9	3
14	Millwall	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.7	3
15	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
16	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	-1	-3.6	3
17	Preston	3	1	0	2	-3	+0.2	3
18	Burnley	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.0	2
19	Birmingham	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.6	2
20	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
21	Lincoln	3	0	2	1	-2	+2.6	2
22	Wrexham	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.1	1
23	Derby	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.7	1
24	Portsmouth	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Swansea	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
2	QPR	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.3	6
3	Wrexham	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.5	4
4	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.6	4
5	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
6	Charlton	3	1	1	1	-3	-3.8	4
7	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.3	3
8	Derby	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.0	3
9	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.9	3
10	Lincoln	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
11	West Brom	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.3	3
12	Millwall	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.6	3
13	West Ham	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.7	2
14	Sheffield United	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.1	2
15	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.6	2
16	Blackburn	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.3	2
17	Cardiff	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.4	1
18	Bolton	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
19	Middlesbrough	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.5	1
20	Watford	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.3	1
21	Preston	2	0	0	2	-2	+0.6	0
22	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.7	0
23	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.4	0
24	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.