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Championship
Referee: Andy Davies
Millwall
T
1–1
Full-time
Bolton
U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Bolton
Last 6 — all competitions · 1/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
0%
17%
Points per game
0,0
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
0%
50%
Both score Ø 25%
0%
50%
Average goals
1,0
2,2
Scored
0,0
0,8
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,5
This season — Championship · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
0,0
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
0%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
1,0
5,0
Scored
0,0
2,0
Conceded
1,0
3,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%
14 Shots 5
8 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 6
4 Corners 0
2 Offside 0
14 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Millwall 19. · Bolton 16. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bristol City 1 1 0 0 +2 3
2 QPR 1 1 0 0 +2 3
3 Leeds 1 1 0 0 +1 3
4 Sheffield United 1 1 0 0 +1 3
5 Wolves 1 1 0 0 +1 3
6 Nott'm Forest 1 1 0 0 +1 3
7 Ipswich 1 1 0 0 +1 3
8 Preston 1 1 0 0 +1 3
9 Cardiff 1 1 0 0 +1 3
10 Aston Villa 1 0 1 0 +0 1
11 Hull 1 0 1 0 +0 1
12 Fulham 1 0 1 0 +0 1
13 Norwich 1 0 1 0 +0 1
14 Sunderland 1 0 1 0 +0 1
15 Derby 1 0 1 0 +0 1
16 Bolton 1 0 0 1 -1 0
17 Brentford 1 0 0 1 -1 0
18 Middlesbrough 1 0 0 1 -1 0
19 Millwall 1 0 0 1 -1 0
20 Birmingham 1 0 0 1 -1 0
21 Sheffield Weds 1 0 0 1 -1 0
22 Burton Albion 1 0 0 1 -1 0
23 Barnsley 1 0 0 1 -2 0
24 Reading 1 0 0 1 -2 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Millwall Bolton
4′
🟨 Reece Burke
Half-time 1–0
1–0 G. Saville ⚽
L. Gregory
49′
53′
🔁 Filipe Morais
↦ M. Little
62′
⚽ Filipe Morais 1–1
Shaun Hutchinson 🟨
68′
69′
🔁 A. Armstrong
↦ A. Le Fondre
F. Onyedinma 🔁
↦ S. Ferguson
77′
T. Elliott 🔁
↦ L. Gregory
82′
83′
🔁 A. Wilbraham
↦ G. Madine
Connor McLaughlin 🟨
85′
88′
🟨 Andrew Taylor
90′
🟨 Jem Karacan
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Millwall

4-4-2
1 J. Archer G
3 J. Meredith D
17 B. Webster D
4 S. Hutchinson D
2 C. McLaughlin D
6 S. Williams M
11 S. Ferguson M
14 J. Wallace M
23 G. Saville M
20 S. Morison F
9 L. Gregory F
Bench (7)
10 F. Onyedinma
19 T. Elliott
5 T. Craig
7 D. Worrall
8 B. Thompson
13 T. King
35 J. Cooper

Coach: N. Harris

Bolton

5-3-2
33 M. Howard
3 A. Taylor D
4 D. Dervite D
2 M. Little D
5 M. Beevers D
32 R. Burke D
8 J. Karacan M
21 D. Pratley M
16 J. Cullen M
9 A. Le Fondre F
14 G. Madine F
Bench (7)
22 Filipe Morais
20 A. Armstrong
18 A. Wilbraham
11 W. Buckley
13 B. Alnwick
15 A. Robinson
17 Derik Osede

Coach: J. Phillips

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Andy Davies · 87 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.