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Super League
Referee: L Piccolo
Luzern
T T S S S
3–1
Full-time
Winterthur
S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luzern Winterthur
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,8
2,8
Scored
1,8
1,2
Conceded
1,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-0,5
This season — Super League · 29/29 matches
Win Ø 31%
38%
24%
Points per game
1,4
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 49%
52%
45%
Both score Ø 62%
62%
62%
Average goals
2,9
2,7
Scored
1,6
0,9
Conceded
1,3
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

57% Possession 43%
22 Shots 9
7 Shots on target 2
5 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
10 Corners 5
5 Offside 0
19 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Luzern 4. · Winterthur 10. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Young Boys 30 17 10 3 +45 61
2 Servette 30 10 14 6 -1 44
3 Lugano 30 11 10 9 +4 43
4 Luzern 29 11 9 9 +6 42
5 Grasshoppers 30 11 7 12 -2 40
6 St. Gallen 30 9 9 12 +7 36
7 Basel 29 8 12 9 +2 36
8 Zurich 30 7 12 11 -18 33
9 Sion 29 7 9 13 -18 30
10 Winterthur 29 7 8 14 -25 29

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

10. Apr -23 Winterthur – Luzern 1–2 5. Nov -22 Luzern – Winterthur 1–1 10. Sep -22 Winterthur – Luzern 0–6

Match report

Luzern Winterthur
25′
⚽ J. Ardaiz 0–1
H. Kryeziu
Max Meyer 🟨
35′
39′
🟨 Hekuran Kryeziu
1–1 P. Dorn ⚽
P. Schürpf
40′
Half-time 1–1
56′
🔁 F. Rodríguez
↦ M. Di Giusto
Marco Burch 🟨
62′
2–1 D. Sorgić ⚽
M. Meyer
65′
68′
🔁 S. Ballet
↦ N. Burkart
68′
🔁 T. Corbaz
↦ H. Kryeziu
Nicky Medja Beloko 🟨
70′
77′
🔁 R. Buess
↦ S. Ltaief
77′
🔁 S. Ramizi
↦ M. Gonçalves
3–1 P. Schürpf ⚽
M. Frýdek
81′
M. Dräger 🔁
↦ M. Meyer
82′
L. Villiger 🔁
↦ D. Sorgić
83′
88′
🟨 Thibault Corbaz
M. Diambou 🔁
↦ N. Beloko
88′
L. Breedijk 🔁
↦ P. Schürpf
88′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Luzern

4-3-1-2
1 M. Müller G
74 S. Ottiger D
46 M. Burch D
30 I. Beka D
13 M. Frýdek D
20 P. Dorn M
6 A. Jashari M
18 N. Beloko M
7 M. Meyer M
11 P. Schürpf F
9 D. Sorgić F
Bench (9)
2 M. Dräger
27 L. Villiger
15 M. Diambou
14 L. Breedijk
21 Asumah Abubakar
4 L. Jaquez
38 P. Loretz
69 S. Chader
41 N. Rupp

Coach: M. Frick

Winterthur

4-2-3-1
30 M. Kuster G
15 M. Gonçalves D
25 Y. Schmid D
5 R. Gelmi D
3 T. Schättin D
40 H. Kryeziu M
77 E. Abedini M
99 N. Burkart M
10 M. Di Giusto M
24 S. Ltaief M
11 J. Ardaiz F
Bench (9)
44 F. Rodríguez
17 S. Ballet
14 T. Corbaz
9 R. Buess
8 S. Ramizi
1 T. Fayulu
16 R. Arnold
22 N. Holenstein
7 N. Manzambi

Coach: B. Berner

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
–
🔒
U
–
🔒
B
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

L Piccolo · 90 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
27,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.