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Premier League

Referee: R Jones

Leicester

U T T T T

4–0

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leicester Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,8

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

2,7

2,5

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-1,2

This season — Premier League · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 7%

14%

Points per game

0,1

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

86%

43%

Both score Ø 65%

86%

43%

Average goals

4,6

3,3

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

3,1

2,4

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-1,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

52% Possession 48%

17 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 6

3 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leicester 20. · Nott'm Forest 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	8	7	0	1	+12	21
2	Man City	8	6	2	0	+20	20
3	Tottenham	8	5	2	1	+9	17
4	Brighton	7	4	2	1	+6	14
5	Chelsea	7	4	1	2	+0	13
6	Man United	7	4	0	3	-3	12
7	Newcastle	8	2	5	1	+4	11
8	Fulham	8	3	2	3	-2	11
9	Liverpool	7	2	4	1	+9	10
10	Brentford	8	2	4	2	+3	10
11	Everton	8	2	4	2	+0	10
12	Leeds	7	2	3	2	+0	9
13	Bournemouth	8	2	3	3	-13	9
14	Aston Villa	8	2	2	4	-4	8
15	West Ham	8	2	1	5	-4	7
16	Southampton	8	2	1	5	-5	7
17	Crystal Palace	7	1	3	3	-3	6
18	Wolves	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Nott'm Forest	7	1	1	5	-11	4
20	Leicester	7	0	1	6	-12	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	4	4	0	0	+15	12
2	Tottenham	4	4	0	0	+9	12
3	Arsenal	4	4	0	0	+6	12
4	Liverpool	4	2	2	0	+10	8
5	Leeds	4	2	2	0	+4	8
6	Brentford	4	2	1	1	+4	7
7	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+4	7
8	Chelsea	3	2	1	0	+2	7
9	Aston Villa	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Fulham	4	2	1	1	-1	7
11	Newcastle	4	1	3	0	+2	6
12	Man United	3	2	0	1	+2	6
13	Everton	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Bournemouth	4	1	2	1	-1	5
15	Wolves	4	1	2	1	-2	5
16	Southampton	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Crystal Palace	4	1	1	2	-1	4
18	West Ham	4	1	1	2	-2	4
19	Nott'm Forest	4	1	0	3	-3	3
20	Leicester	3	0	1	2	-2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	4	3	0	1	+6	9
2	Man City	4	2	2	0	+5	8
3	Brighton	4	2	1	1	+2	7
4	Chelsea	4	2	0	2	-2	6
5	Man United	4	2	0	2	-5	6
6	Newcastle	4	1	2	1	+2	5
7	Tottenham	4	1	2	1	+0	5
8	Everton	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Fulham	4	1	1	2	-1	4
10	Bournemouth	4	1	1	2	-12	4
11	Brentford	4	0	3	1	-1	3
12	West Ham	4	1	0	3	-2	3
13	Southampton	4	1	0	3	-4	3
14	Liverpool	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Crystal Palace	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	Leeds	3	0	1	2	-4	1
17	Wolves	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	Aston Villa	4	0	1	3	-5	1
19	Nott'm Forest	3	0	1	2	-8	1
20	Leicester	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.