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Primeira Liga

Referee: Vitor Ferreira

Maritimo

T T T T T

1–2

Full-time

Casa Pia

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Maritimo Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,3

1,7

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

2,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

-2,3

+0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

57%

Points per game

0,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

86%

14%

Both score Ø 36%

57%

14%

Average goals

3,7

1,4

Scored

0,6

1,0

Conceded

3,1

0,4

Goal diff per game

-2,6

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

61% Possession 39%

19 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Maritimo 18. · Casa Pia 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	8	7	1	0	+16	22
2	Sp Braga	8	6	1	1	+15	19
3	Porto	8	6	1	1	+14	19
4	Portimonense	8	5	0	3	+1	15
5	Boavista	8	5	0	3	-4	15
6	Casa Pia	7	4	2	1	+4	14
7	Sp Lisbon	8	4	1	3	+5	13
8	Estoril	8	3	3	2	+3	12
9	Guimaraes	8	3	2	3	+0	11
10	Rio Ave	8	2	3	3	-2	9
11	Chaves	8	2	3	3	-2	9
12	Gil Vicente	8	2	3	3	-3	9
13	Arouca	8	2	3	3	-9	9
14	Vizela	8	2	2	4	-3	8
15	Famalicao	8	2	1	5	-3	7
16	Santa Clara	8	1	2	5	-4	5
17	Pacos Ferreira	8	0	2	6	-10	2
18	Maritimo	7	0	0	7	-18	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+13	12
2	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+11	12
3	Sp Braga	4	3	1	0	+8	10
4	Sp Lisbon	4	3	0	1	+7	9
5	Portimonense	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Boavista	4	3	0	1	+0	9
7	Casa Pia	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Guimaraes	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Rio Ave	4	2	0	2	+1	6
10	Famalicao	4	2	0	2	+1	6
11	Estoril	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Santa Clara	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Gil Vicente	4	1	2	1	-1	5
14	Vizela	4	1	1	2	-1	4
15	Arouca	4	1	1	2	-6	4
16	Chaves	4	0	3	1	-1	3
17	Pacos Ferreira	4	0	1	3	-7	1
18	Maritimo	3	0	0	3	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Sp Braga	4	3	0	1	+7	9
3	Estoril	4	2	1	1	+3	7
4	Casa Pia	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Porto	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Chaves	4	2	0	2	-1	6
7	Portimonense	4	2	0	2	-1	6
8	Boavista	4	2	0	2	-4	6
9	Arouca	4	1	2	1	-3	5
10	Guimaraes	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Sp Lisbon	4	1	1	2	-2	4
12	Gil Vicente	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Vizela	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Rio Ave	4	0	3	1	-3	3
15	Pacos Ferreira	4	0	1	3	-3	1
16	Famalicao	4	0	1	3	-4	1
17	Santa Clara	4	0	0	4	-4	0
18	Maritimo	4	0	0	4	-15	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.