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Bundesliga
Referee: M Schmidt
Freiburg
S U T U T
1–0
Full-time
M'gladbach
S S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg M'gladbach
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
2,5
3,2
Scored
1,2
1,8
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,5
This season — Bundesliga · 29/29 matches
Win Ø 47%
34%
59%
Points per game
1,3
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 61%
52%
69%
Both score Ø 62%
55%
69%
Average goals
2,7
3,2
Scored
1,3
2,0
Conceded
1,4
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,1
+0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

35% Possession 65%
16 Shots 18
6 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 5
3 Corners 10
1 Offside 1
14 Free kicks against 14
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Freiburg 8. · M'gladbach 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 29 21 4 4 +58 67
2 Dortmund 29 18 6 5 +45 60
3 RB Leipzig 29 16 10 3 +43 58
4 M'gladbach 29 17 5 7 +22 56
5 Leverkusen 29 17 5 7 +18 56
6 Wolfsburg 29 11 9 9 +5 42
7 Hoffenheim 29 12 6 11 -8 42
8 Freiburg 29 10 8 11 -3 38
9 Hertha 29 10 8 11 -7 38
10 Schalke 04 29 9 10 10 -12 37
11 Ein Frankfurt 29 10 5 14 -4 35
12 FC Koln 29 10 4 15 -10 34
13 Augsburg 29 8 7 14 -16 31
14 Union Berlin 29 9 4 16 -18 31
15 Mainz 29 8 4 17 -25 28
16 Fortuna Dusseldorf 29 6 9 14 -27 27
17 Werder Bremen 29 6 7 16 -32 25
18 Paderborn 29 4 7 18 -29 19

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Freiburg M'gladbach
G. Waldschmidt 🟨
16′
22′
🟨 A. Plea
L. Kubler 🟨
27′
R. Koch 🟨
40′
Half-time 0–0
46′
🟨 S. Lainer
L. Kubler 🔁
↦ J. Schmid
57′
R. Sallai 🔁
↦ N. Petersen
57′
1–0 N. Petersen
V. Grifo
58′
68′
🟨 A. Plea
68′
🟥 A. Plea
72′
🔁 P. Herrmann
↦ O. Wendt
81′
🔁 N. Elvedi
↦ I. Traore
81′
🔁 J. Hofmann
↦ L. Benes
81′
🔁 L. Stindl
↦ Raffael
G. Waldschmidt 🔁
↦ J. Haberer
83′
N. Hofler 🟨
85′
V. Grifo 🔁
↦ Kwon Chang-Hoon
88′
L. Holer 🔁
↦ M. Frantz
88′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Freiburg

4-2-2-2
1 Alexander Schwolow G
17 Lukas Kübler D
3 Philipp Lienhart D
23 Dominique Heintz D
30 Christian Günter D
25 Robin Koch M
27 Nicolas Höfler M
22 Roland Sallai M
32 Vincenzo Grifo M
9 Lucas Höler F
11 Luca Waldschmidt F
Bench (9)
26 Mark Flekken
4 Nico Schlotterbeck
7 Jonathan Schmid
36 Yannik Keitel
19 Janik Haberer
8 Mike Frantz
28 Chang-Hoon Kwon
6 Amir Abrashi
18 Nils Petersen

Coach: C. Streich

M'gladbach

4-2-3-1
1 Yann Sommer G
18 Stefan Lainer D
28 Matthias Ginter D
30 Nico Elvedi D
25 Ramy Bensebaini D
23 Jonas Hofmann M
32 Florian Neuhaus M
7 Patrick Herrmann M
13 Lars Stindl M
10 Marcus Thuram M
14 Alassane Pléa F
Bench (9)
21 Tobias Sippel
17 Oscar Wendt
24 Tony Jantschke
4 Mamadou Doucouré
22 László Bénes
27 Famana Quizera
6 Christoph Kramer
16 Ibrahima Traoré
11 Raffael

Coach: M. Rose

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
4,42
U
4,01
B
1,76
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,62
U2,5 ✓
2,30
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

M Schmidt · 27 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,33 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.