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Bundesliga
Referee: Manuel Gräfe
M'gladbach
U S T S U
3–1
Full-time
Freiburg
T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

M'gladbach Freiburg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,5
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,3
2,5
Scored
1,7
0,7
Conceded
1,7
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-1,2
This season — Bundesliga · 32/32 matches
Win Ø 30%
38%
22%
Points per game
1,4
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 49%
50%
47%
Both score Ø 50%
53%
47%
Average goals
2,9
2,6
Scored
1,3
0,9
Conceded
1,5
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

50% Possession 50%
18 Shots 19
5 Shots on target 6
6 Blocked shots 6
5 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 3
2 Offside 0
8 Free kicks against 10
0 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match M'gladbach 9. · Freiburg 15.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 32 26 3 3 +65 81
2 Schalke 04 32 16 9 7 +14 57
3 Dortmund 32 15 10 7 +20 55
4 Hoffenheim 32 14 10 8 +18 52
5 Leverkusen 32 14 9 9 +13 51
6 RB Leipzig 32 13 8 11 -3 47
7 Ein Frankfurt 32 13 7 12 -2 46
8 Stuttgart 32 13 6 13 -5 45
9 M'gladbach 32 12 8 12 -6 44
10 Hertha 32 10 13 9 +3 43
11 Augsburg 32 10 11 11 +0 41
12 Werder Bremen 32 9 11 12 -4 38
13 Hannover 32 9 9 14 -11 36
14 Mainz 32 8 9 15 -14 33
15 Freiburg 32 7 12 13 -24 33
16 Wolfsburg 32 5 15 12 -12 30
17 Hamburg 32 7 7 18 -22 28
18 FC Koln 32 5 7 20 -30 22

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

M'gladbach Freiburg
1–0 T. Hazard
T. Strobl
18′
38′
🔁 J. Haberer
↦ J. Schuster
Half-time 1–0
56′
🟨 Nicolas Höfler
2–0 N. Elvedi
J. Hofmann
57′
59′
T. Kleindienst 2–1
M. Kempf
3–1 J. Drmic
T. Jantschke
64′
R. Oxford 🔁
↦ T. Strobl
69′
70′
🔁 L. Höler
↦ M. Frantz
I. Traoré 🔁
↦ J. Drmic
73′
74′
🟨 Marc-Oliver Kempf
P. Herrmann 🔁
↦ T. Hazard
87′
87′
🔁 R. Koch
↦ M. Terrazzino
90′
🟨 Lukas Kübler
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

M'gladbach

4-4-2
1 Y. Sommer G
17 O. Wendt D
24 T. Jantschke D
28 M. Ginter D
30 N. Elvedi D
5 T. Strobl M
10 T. Hazard M
23 J. Hofmann M
27 M. Cuisance M
11 Raffael F
18 J. Drmic F
Bench (7)
3 R. Oxford
16 I. Traoré
7 P. Herrmann
14 L. Beyer
21 T. Sippel
32 V. Grifo
42 F. Mayer

Coach: D. Hecking

Freiburg

4-4-2
1 A. Schwolow G
5 M. Gulde D
17 L. Kübler D
20 M. Kempf D
30 C. Günter D
23 J. Schuster D
8 M. Frantz M
27 N. Höfler M
18 N. Petersen F
13 M. Terrazzino M
34 T. Kleindienst F
Bench (7)
19 J. Haberer
9 L. Höler
25 R. Koch
3 P. Lienhart
15 P. Stenzel
31 K. Guédé
44 R. Gikiewicz

Coach: C. Streich

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Manuel Gräfe · 72 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
16,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.