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Bundesliga

Referee: Deniz Aytekin

Freiburg

T T S U S

1–0

Full-time

M'gladbach

U S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg M'gladbach

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 34%

20%

47%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

53%

60%

Both score Ø 57%

47%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

0,9

1,6

Conceded

1,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

43% Possession 57%

23 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 16. · M'gladbach 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	11	2	2	+24	35
2	RB Leipzig	16	8	4	4	+3	28
3	Schalke 04	15	7	5	3	+6	26
4	M'gladbach	15	7	4	4	-2	25
5	Leverkusen	15	6	6	3	+10	24
6	Hoffenheim	15	6	5	4	+5	23
7	Augsburg	15	6	5	4	+5	23
8	Dortmund	15	6	4	5	+12	22
9	Ein Frankfurt	15	6	4	5	+1	22
10	Hannover	15	6	4	5	+0	22
11	Wolfsburg	16	3	10	3	+1	19
12	Hertha	15	4	6	5	-2	18
13	Stuttgart	15	5	2	8	-6	17
14	Mainz	15	4	4	7	-7	16
15	Hamburg	15	4	3	8	-7	15
16	Freiburg	15	3	6	6	-15	15
17	Werder Bremen	15	3	5	7	-6	14
18	FC Koln	15	0	3	12	-22	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	6	1	0	+18	19
2	RB Leipzig	7	5	2	0	+8	17
3	Stuttgart	7	5	1	1	+5	16
4	Hoffenheim	8	4	3	1	+7	15
5	Schalke 04	8	4	3	1	+5	15
6	Hannover	7	4	2	1	+6	14
7	M'gladbach	8	4	2	2	+0	14
8	Leverkusen	7	3	4	0	+8	13
9	Mainz	8	4	1	3	+1	13
10	Augsburg	8	3	3	2	+3	12
11	Wolfsburg	9	2	6	1	+2	12
12	Freiburg	8	2	5	1	+1	11
13	Hamburg	8	3	2	3	+0	11
14	Hertha	8	3	2	3	-1	11
15	Dortmund	7	3	1	3	+8	10
16	Ein Frankfurt	7	2	1	4	-2	7
17	Werder Bremen	7	2	1	4	-3	7
18	FC Koln	7	0	1	6	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	5	1	2	+6	16
2	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	3	1	+3	15
3	Dortmund	8	3	3	2	+4	12
4	Leverkusen	8	3	2	3	+2	11
5	Augsburg	7	3	2	2	+2	11
6	Schalke 04	7	3	2	2	+1	11
7	M'gladbach	7	3	2	2	-2	11
8	RB Leipzig	9	3	2	4	-5	11
9	Hoffenheim	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	Hannover	8	2	2	4	-6	8
11	Hertha	7	1	4	2	-1	7
12	Wolfsburg	7	1	4	2	-1	7
13	Werder Bremen	8	1	4	3	-3	7
14	Hamburg	7	1	1	5	-7	4
15	Freiburg	7	1	1	5	-16	4
16	Mainz	7	0	3	4	-8	3
17	FC Koln	8	0	2	6	-12	2
18	Stuttgart	8	0	1	7	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.