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Bundesliga

Referee: Robert Hartmann

Freiburg

S S T U U

3–1

Full-time

M'gladbach

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg M'gladbach

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

4,0

Scored

1,5

2,7

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,3

This season — Bundesliga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 44%

25%

63%

Points per game

1,1

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

50%

75%

Both score Ø 63%

63%

Average goals

3,0

3,5

Scored

1,3

2,4

Conceded

1,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

41% Possession 59%

13 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 10

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 11. · M'gladbach 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	8	6	2	0	+19	20
2	M'gladbach	8	5	2	1	+10	17
3	Werder Bremen	8	5	2	1	+7	17
4	Bayern Munich	8	5	1	2	+6	16
5	RB Leipzig	8	4	3	1	+7	15
6	Hertha	8	4	3	1	+5	15
7	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	1	3	+7	13
8	Hoffenheim	8	3	1	4	+1	10
9	Augsburg	8	2	3	3	+1	9
10	Wolfsburg	8	2	3	3	-3	9
11	Freiburg	8	2	3	3	-4	9
12	Mainz	8	2	3	3	-4	9
13	Leverkusen	8	2	2	4	-6	8
14	Nurnberg	8	2	2	4	-11	8
15	Hannover	8	1	3	4	-6	6
16	Schalke 04	8	2	0	6	-6	6
17	Stuttgart	8	1	2	5	-11	5
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	8	1	2	5	-12	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	4	4	0	0	+13	12
2	M'gladbach	4	4	0	0	+9	12
3	RB Leipzig	4	3	1	0	+9	10
4	Hertha	4	3	1	0	+5	10
5	Werder Bremen	4	2	2	0	+4	8
6	Mainz	4	2	2	0	+2	8
7	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	1	1	+8	7
8	Nurnberg	4	2	1	1	+3	7
9	Bayern Munich	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Augsburg	4	1	2	1	+2	5
11	Freiburg	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Wolfsburg	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	Hoffenheim	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Hannover	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Leverkusen	4	1	1	2	-3	4
16	Stuttgart	4	1	1	2	-6	4
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	1	0	3	-3	3
18	Schalke 04	4	1	0	3	-5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	3	0	1	+5	9
2	Werder Bremen	4	3	0	1	+3	9
3	Dortmund	4	2	2	0	+6	8
4	Hoffenheim	4	2	0	2	+1	6
5	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	0	2	-1	6
6	M'gladbach	4	1	2	1	+1	5
7	Hertha	4	1	2	1	+0	5
8	RB Leipzig	4	1	2	1	-2	5
9	Wolfsburg	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Augsburg	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Freiburg	4	1	1	2	-3	4
12	Leverkusen	4	1	1	2	-3	4
13	Schalke 04	4	1	0	3	-1	3
14	Hannover	5	0	2	3	-6	2
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	0	2	2	-9	2
16	Stuttgart	4	0	1	3	-5	1
17	Mainz	4	0	1	3	-6	1
18	Nurnberg	4	0	1	3	-14	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.