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Premier League

Referee: D England

Man City

T S U S S

2–1

Full-time

Fulham

T U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Fulham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

3,5

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

0,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

This season — Premier League · 12/13 matches

Win Ø 57%

75%

38%

Points per game

2,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 76%

67%

85%

Both score Ø 60%

42%

77%

Average goals

4,0

3,4

Scored

3,1

1,7

Conceded

0,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

71% Possession 29%

16 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 0

3 Offside 0

6 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 2. · Fulham 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	12	10	1	1	+19	31
2	Man City	12	9	2	1	+26	29
3	Tottenham	13	8	2	3	+10	26
4	Newcastle	13	6	6	1	+14	24
5	Man United	12	7	2	3	+1	23
6	Chelsea	12	6	3	3	+2	21
7	Fulham	13	5	4	4	+0	19
8	Brighton	12	5	3	4	+4	18
9	Liverpool	12	4	4	4	+8	16
10	Crystal Palace	12	4	4	4	-3	16
11	Brentford	13	3	6	4	-3	15
12	Everton	13	3	5	5	-1	14
13	West Ham	13	4	2	7	-2	14
14	Bournemouth	13	3	4	6	-16	13
15	Leeds	12	3	3	6	-4	12
16	Southampton	13	3	3	7	-9	12
17	Aston Villa	13	3	3	7	-9	12
18	Leicester	13	3	2	8	-4	11
19	Wolves	13	2	4	7	-13	10
20	Nott'm Forest	13	2	3	8	-20	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	6	6	0	0	+21	18
2	Arsenal	6	6	0	0	+12	18
3	Newcastle	7	4	3	0	+11	15
4	Tottenham	6	5	0	1	+10	15
5	Liverpool	7	4	2	1	+11	14
6	Man United	6	4	1	1	+5	13
7	Crystal Palace	7	4	1	2	+2	13
8	Brentford	7	3	3	1	+6	12
9	Fulham	7	3	3	1	+2	12
10	Brighton	6	3	2	1	+6	11
11	Chelsea	5	3	2	0	+5	11
12	Aston Villa	6	3	1	2	+3	10
13	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+2	10
14	Leicester	7	2	2	3	+3	8
15	Leeds	6	2	2	2	+2	8
16	Everton	6	2	2	2	+2	8
17	Bournemouth	7	2	2	3	-2	8
18	Wolves	6	2	2	2	-5	8
19	Nott'm Forest	6	2	1	3	-2	7
20	Southampton	6	1	3	2	-1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	+7	13
2	Man City	6	3	2	1	+5	11
3	Tottenham	7	3	2	2	+0	11
4	Chelsea	7	3	1	3	-3	10
5	Man United	6	3	1	2	-4	10
6	Newcastle	6	2	3	1	+3	9
7	Brighton	6	2	1	3	-2	7
8	Fulham	6	2	1	3	-2	7
9	Everton	7	1	3	3	-3	6
10	Southampton	7	2	0	5	-8	6
11	Bournemouth	6	1	2	3	-14	5
12	West Ham	7	1	1	5	-4	4
13	Leeds	6	1	1	4	-6	4
14	Crystal Palace	5	0	3	2	-5	3
15	Leicester	6	1	0	5	-7	3
16	Brentford	6	0	3	3	-9	3
17	Liverpool	5	0	2	3	-3	2
18	Wolves	7	0	2	5	-8	2
19	Aston Villa	7	0	2	5	-12	2
20	Nott'm Forest	7	0	2	5	-18	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.