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Bundesliga

Referee: S Jablonski

St Pauli

S T S S S

0–2

Full-time

Heidenheim

U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Pauli Heidenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,8

2,2

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,94 xG 1,12

61% Possession 39%

11 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
2	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
3	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
4	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
5	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.8	3
6	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
7	Augsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
8	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
9	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
10	Union Berlin	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
11	Wolfsburg	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
12	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
13	Holstein Kiel	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.8	0
14	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
15	Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
16	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
2	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
3	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.8	3
4	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
5	Augsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
6	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
7	Wolfsburg	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
8	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
2	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
3	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
4	Union Berlin	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
5	Holstein Kiel	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.8	0
6	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
7	Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
8	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.