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League Cup

Referee: P Tierney

Newcastle

T S S U S

2–1

Full-time

Southampton

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,2

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

0,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

This season — League Cup · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 70%

80%

60%

Points per game

2,6

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

20%

40%

Both score Ø 30%

20%

40%

Average goals

1,4

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,6

Conceded

0,2

0,6

Goal diff per game

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

45% Possession 55%

15 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 1

0 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 14

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 1. · Southampton 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	5	4	1	0	+5	13
2	Man United	4	4	0	0	+10	12
3	Nott'm Forest	5	3	1	1	+5	10
4	Southampton	5	3	1	1	+5	10
5	Wolves	4	3	1	0	+4	10
6	Milton Keynes Dons	4	3	0	1	+2	9
7	Sheffield Weds	3	2	1	0	+5	7
8	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+5	7
9	Lincoln	4	2	1	1	+4	7
10	Leicester	4	2	1	1	+4	7
11	Blackburn	4	2	1	1	+2	7
12	Stevenage	3	2	1	0	+2	7
13	Derby	3	2	1	0	+2	7
14	Bristol City	3	2	0	1	+3	6
15	Man City	3	2	0	1	+1	6
16	Burnley	3	2	0	1	+1	6
17	Crawley Town	3	2	0	1	+1	6
18	Newport County	3	2	0	1	-1	6
19	Charlton	5	1	3	1	-2	6
20	Gillingham	4	1	2	1	+0	5
21	Exeter City	2	1	1	0	+7	4
22	Bournemouth	3	1	1	1	+2	4
23	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+2	4
24	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+2	4
25	Stockport County	2	1	1	0	+1	4
26	Morecambe	3	1	1	1	-1	4
27	Preston	2	1	0	1	+2	3
28	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+2	3
29	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
31	Grimsby	2	1	0	1	+1	3
32	Leeds	2	1	0	1	+1	3
33	Peterborough	2	1	0	1	+1	3
34	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	Bradford	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Fleetwood Town	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Wycombe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
41	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	-1	3
42	Rochdale	2	1	0	1	-1	3
43	Forest Green	2	1	0	1	-1	3
44	Colchester	2	1	0	1	-1	3
45	Everton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
46	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
47	Norwich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
48	Barrow	2	0	2	0	+0	2
49	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Tranmere	2	0	1	1	-1	1
57	Liverpool	2	0	1	1	-1	1
58	Oxford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
59	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Arsenal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Watford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Tottenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
87	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
88	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
89	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
90	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0
91	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0
92	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Wolves	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Newcastle	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Southampton	4	2	1	1	+2	7
5	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
6	Man City	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Crawley Town	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	Milton Keynes Dons	3	2	0	1	+0	6
9	Stevenage	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Nott'm Forest	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Rochdale	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
17	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+1	3
18	Grimsby	2	1	0	1	+1	3
19	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
21	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Bradford	2	1	0	1	+0	3
24	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
25	Fleetwood Town	2	1	0	1	+0	3
26	Forest Green	2	1	0	1	-1	3
27	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
28	Norwich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
29	Charlton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
30	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Oxford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
40	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Arsenal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Watford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
58	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
59	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
60	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
61	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Lincoln	4	2	1	1	+4	7
3	Nott'm Forest	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Bristol City	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Newcastle	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Exeter City	2	1	1	0	+7	4
7	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Leicester	3	1	1	1	+1	4
10	Derby	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Gillingham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Charlton	3	1	1	1	-2	4
13	Man United	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Preston	2	1	0	1	+2	3
16	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+2	3
17	Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
20	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Peterborough	2	1	0	1	+1	3
22	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Colchester	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	-1	3
27	Burnley	2	1	0	1	-1	3
28	Morecambe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
29	Newport County	2	1	0	1	-2	3
30	Everton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
31	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Wolves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-1	1
40	Liverpool	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Man City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Tottenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Rochdale	1	0	0	1	-3	0
60	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
61	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0
62	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.