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La Liga

Referee: Valentín Pizarro

Villarreal

U T T S S

5–2

Full-time

Alaves

U T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Alaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

This season — La Liga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 27%

29%

24%

Points per game

1,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

41%

35%

Both score Ø 44%

47%

41%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

62% Possession 38%

24 Shots 4

10 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 2

2 Offside 7

16 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 11. · Alaves 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	18	13	4	1	+24	43
2	Sevilla	17	11	4	2	+16	37
3	Betis	18	10	3	5	+11	33
4	Vallecano	18	9	3	6	+8	30
5	Ath Madrid	17	8	5	4	+8	29
6	Sociedad	18	8	5	5	+0	29
7	Valencia	18	7	7	4	+4	28
8	Barcelona	17	7	6	4	+7	27
9	Ath Bilbao	18	5	9	4	+2	24
10	Espanol	18	6	5	7	-1	23
11	Villarreal	17	5	7	5	+3	22
12	Osasuna	18	5	7	6	-5	22
13	Celta	18	5	5	8	-2	20
14	Mallorca	18	4	8	6	-10	20
15	Granada	17	4	7	6	-4	19
16	Getafe	18	3	6	9	-8	15
17	Elche	18	3	6	9	-9	15
18	Alaves	17	4	3	10	-11	15
19	Cadiz	18	2	8	8	-16	14
20	Levante	18	0	8	10	-17	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vallecano	9	8	1	0	+16	25
2	Sevilla	8	7	1	0	+13	22
3	Real Madrid	9	6	3	0	+13	21
4	Barcelona	10	6	2	2	+8	20
5	Espanol	9	6	2	1	+7	20
6	Betis	9	5	2	2	+9	17
7	Valencia	9	4	4	1	+6	16
8	Ath Madrid	8	4	3	1	+6	15
9	Sociedad	9	4	3	2	+0	15
10	Villarreal	8	4	2	2	+5	14
11	Ath Bilbao	9	4	2	3	+2	14
12	Mallorca	9	2	6	1	+1	12
13	Granada	8	3	2	3	+0	11
14	Getafe	9	3	2	4	+0	11
15	Elche	8	2	4	2	-1	10
16	Alaves	9	3	1	5	-5	10
17	Celta	10	2	2	6	-4	8
18	Osasuna	9	1	5	3	-6	8
19	Levante	9	0	6	3	-6	6
20	Cadiz	9	0	5	4	-8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	9	7	1	1	+11	22
2	Betis	9	5	1	3	+2	16
3	Sevilla	9	4	3	2	+3	15
4	Ath Madrid	9	4	2	3	+2	14
5	Osasuna	9	4	2	3	+1	14
6	Sociedad	9	4	2	3	+0	14
7	Celta	8	3	3	2	+2	12
8	Valencia	9	3	3	3	-2	12
9	Ath Bilbao	9	1	7	1	+0	10
10	Cadiz	9	2	3	4	-8	9
11	Villarreal	9	1	5	3	-2	8
12	Granada	9	1	5	3	-4	8
13	Mallorca	9	2	2	5	-11	8
14	Barcelona	7	1	4	2	-1	7
15	Alaves	8	1	2	5	-6	5
16	Elche	10	1	2	7	-8	5
17	Vallecano	9	1	2	6	-8	5
18	Getafe	9	0	4	5	-8	4
19	Espanol	9	0	3	6	-8	3
20	Levante	9	0	2	7	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.