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La Liga

Referee: Adrián Cordero

Alaves

U T T U S

2–1

Full-time

Villarreal

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,2

3,7

Scored

0,8

2,5

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,3

This season — La Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 29%

19%

39%

Points per game

0,9

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

42%

55%

Both score Ø 60%

52%

68%

Average goals

2,3

2,6

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

32% Possession 68%

9 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 8

1 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alaves 18. · Villarreal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	31	21	7	3	+37	70
2	Real Madrid	31	20	7	4	+29	67
3	Sevilla	32	21	4	7	+22	67
4	Barcelona	30	20	5	5	+43	65
5	Villarreal	31	12	13	6	+14	49
6	Betis	32	14	7	11	-3	49
7	Sociedad	31	12	11	8	+15	47
8	Osasuna	32	10	10	12	-7	40
9	Granada	30	11	6	13	-14	39
10	Ath Bilbao	31	9	11	11	+6	38
11	Celta	31	9	11	11	-7	38
12	Levante	32	9	11	12	-7	38
13	Cadiz	31	9	9	13	-18	36
14	Valencia	32	8	11	13	-7	35
15	Getafe	31	7	10	14	-12	31
16	Valladolid	30	5	12	13	-14	27
17	Huesca	31	5	12	14	-15	27
18	Alaves	31	6	9	16	-22	27
19	Elche	31	5	11	15	-21	26
20	Eibar	31	4	11	16	-19	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	16	12	3	1	+26	39
2	Barcelona	15	10	4	1	+23	34
3	Real Madrid	15	11	1	3	+17	34
4	Sevilla	15	11	1	3	+14	34
5	Betis	17	8	5	4	+4	29
6	Granada	15	8	3	4	+1	27
7	Ath Bilbao	15	7	4	4	+10	25
8	Sociedad	16	6	6	4	+7	24
9	Valencia	15	6	6	3	+6	24
10	Villarreal	15	6	6	3	+4	24
11	Osasuna	17	6	5	6	-2	23
12	Levante	17	5	7	5	-3	22
13	Getafe	17	5	6	6	+2	21
14	Celta	15	6	3	6	-3	21
15	Alaves	16	4	5	7	-7	17
16	Cadiz	16	4	5	7	-9	17
17	Elche	14	3	7	4	-5	16
18	Huesca	15	3	6	6	-4	15
19	Valladolid	15	3	5	7	-8	14
20	Eibar	15	1	6	8	-10	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	16	9	6	1	+12	33
2	Sevilla	17	10	3	4	+8	33
3	Barcelona	15	10	1	4	+20	31
4	Ath Madrid	15	9	4	2	+11	31
5	Villarreal	16	6	7	3	+10	25
6	Sociedad	15	6	5	4	+8	23
7	Betis	15	6	2	7	-7	20
8	Cadiz	15	5	4	6	-9	19
9	Celta	16	3	8	5	-4	17
10	Osasuna	15	4	5	6	-5	17
11	Levante	15	4	4	7	-4	16
12	Eibar	16	3	5	8	-9	14
13	Ath Bilbao	16	2	7	7	-4	13
14	Valladolid	15	2	7	6	-6	13
15	Huesca	16	2	6	8	-11	12
16	Granada	15	3	3	9	-15	12
17	Valencia	17	2	5	10	-13	11
18	Getafe	14	2	4	8	-14	10
19	Alaves	15	2	4	9	-15	10
20	Elche	17	2	4	11	-16	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.