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La Liga
Referee: César Soto
Villarreal
T U T S U
1–3
Full-time
Barcelona
T T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Barcelona
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,8
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,8
2,8
Scored
1,2
1,5
Conceded
1,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,2
This season — La Liga · 13/13 matches
Win Ø 31%
23%
38%
Points per game
1,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
38%
46%
Both score Ø 54%
46%
62%
Average goals
2,2
2,7
Scored
1,2
1,5
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

50% Possession 50%
14 Shots 12
2 Shots on target 6
4 Blocked shots 0
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
4 Corners 4
3 Offside 4
19 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Villarreal 12. · Barcelona 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Real Madrid 13 9 3 1 +18 30
2 Sociedad 14 8 5 1 +9 29
3 Sevilla 13 8 4 1 +14 28
4 Ath Madrid 13 7 5 1 +9 26
5 Vallecano 15 7 3 5 +7 24
6 Betis 14 7 3 4 +5 24
7 Barcelona 13 5 5 3 +5 20
8 Ath Bilbao 14 4 8 2 +3 20
9 Valencia 15 4 7 4 +1 19
10 Osasuna 14 5 4 5 -4 19
11 Espanol 14 4 5 5 +0 17
12 Villarreal 13 3 7 3 +2 16
13 Celta 15 4 4 7 -3 16
14 Mallorca 15 3 7 5 -8 16
15 Alaves 14 4 2 8 -8 14
16 Granada 14 2 6 6 -8 12
17 Cadiz 14 2 6 6 -11 12
18 Elche 14 2 5 7 -9 11
19 Getafe 15 2 4 9 -9 10
20 Levante 14 0 7 7 -13 7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Villarreal Barcelona
Yéremi Pino 🟨
26′
26′
🟨 Jordi Alba
44′
🟨 Gerard Piqué
Half-time 0–1
48′
F. de Jong 0–1
50′
ℹ️ Frenkie de Jong
VAR: Goal cancelled
P. Estupiñán 🔁
↦ Pedraza
65′
S. Chukwueze 🔁
↦ Yeremi Pino
65′
66′
🔁 O. Dembélé
↦ A. Ezzalzouli
71′
🔁 Óscar Mingueza
↦ Jordi Alba
1–1 S. Chukwueze
A. Groeneveld
76′
80′
🔁 Philippe Coutinho
↦ Nico González
Dani Raba 🔁
↦ Manu Trigueros
84′
88′
M. Depay 1–2
Dani Raba 🟨
90′
94′
Philippe Coutinho 1–3
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Villarreal

4-4-2
13 G. Rulli G
3 Albiol D
4 Pau Torres D
8 J. Foyth D
6 E. Capoue M
5 Dani Parejo M
23 Moi Gómez M
14 Manu Trigueros F
24 Pedraza D
21 Yeremi Pino M
15 A. Groeneveld F
Bench (12)
12 P. Estupiñán
11 S. Chukwueze
17 Dani Raba
35 F. Jörgensen
2 Mario Gaspar
20 Rubén Peña
9 Paco Alcácer
10 Iborra
16 B. Dia
18 Alberto Moreno
1 Asenjo
22 A. Mandi

Coach: Unai Emery

Barcelona

4-3-3
1 M. ter Stegen G
3 Piqué D
18 Jordi Alba D
4 R. Araújo D
24 Eric García D
5 Sergio Busquets M
21 F. de Jong M
28 Nico González M
30 Gavi F
9 M. Depay F
33 A. Ezzalzouli F
Bench (12)
7 O. Dembélé
22 Óscar Mingueza
14 Philippe Coutinho
2 S. Dest
37 Ilias Akhomach
15 C. Lenglet
23 S. Umtiti
6 Riqui Puig
36 Arnau Tenas
13 Neto
11 Y. Demir
17 L. de Jong

Coach: Xavi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,71
U
3,45
B ✓
2,59
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,78
U2,5
2,06
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

César Soto · 119 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.