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La Liga
Referee: César Soto
Real Madrid
S T U S T
2–1
Full-time
Cadiz
U U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Cadiz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
4,2
2,8
Scored
2,7
1,2
Conceded
1,5
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-0,5
This season — La Liga · 13/13 matches
Win Ø 46%
77%
15%
Points per game
2,5
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
77%
46%
Both score Ø 58%
85%
31%
Average goals
3,4
2,5
Scored
2,4
0,6
Conceded
1,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,4
-1,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

67% Possession 33%
18 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 1
3 Offside 0
12 Free kicks against 16
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Cadiz 19.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Barcelona 14 12 1 1 +28 37
2 Real Madrid 13 10 2 1 +18 32
3 Sociedad 14 8 2 4 +2 26
4 Ath Bilbao 14 7 3 4 +10 24
5 Ath Madrid 14 7 3 4 +7 24
6 Betis 14 7 3 4 +5 24
7 Osasuna 14 7 2 5 +2 23
8 Vallecano 14 6 4 4 +4 22
9 Villarreal 14 6 3 5 +5 21
10 Valencia 14 5 4 5 +7 19
11 Mallorca 14 5 4 5 +0 19
12 Valladolid 14 5 2 7 -8 17
13 Girona 14 4 4 6 -2 16
14 Almeria 14 5 1 8 -6 16
15 Getafe 14 3 5 6 -8 14
16 Espanol 14 2 6 6 -6 12
17 Celta 14 3 3 8 -12 12
18 Sevilla 14 2 5 7 -9 11
19 Cadiz 13 2 5 6 -16 11
20 Elche 14 0 4 10 -21 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Real Madrid Cadiz
Éder Militão 🟨
19′
Vinícius Júnior 🟨
28′
28′
🟨 Fali
David Alaba 🟨
37′
1–0 Éder Militão
T. Kroos
40′
44′
🟨 Rubén Sobrino
Half-time 1–0
55′
🟨 Iván Alejo
56′
🔁 T. Bongonda
↦ Alejo
56′
🔁 B. Ocampo
↦ Rubén Alcaraz
2–0 T. Kroos
70′
72′
🔁 Lucas Pérez
↦ A. Lozano
73′
🔁 José Mari
↦ Juan Cala
78′
🔁 Álvaro Negredo
↦ Sobrino
81′
Lucas Pérez 2–1
Dani Ceballos 🔁
↦ Rodrygo
82′
E. Camavinga 🔁
↦ L. Modrić
85′
Nacho 🔁
↦ Lucas Vázquez
88′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-3-3
1 T. Courtois G
17 Lucas Vázquez D
3 Éder Militão D
4 D. Alaba D
23 F. Mendy D
10 L. Modrić M
18 A. Tchouaméni M
8 T. Kroos M
15 F. Valverde F
21 Rodrygo F
20 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (11)
19 Dani Ceballos
12 E. Camavinga
6 Nacho
11 Marco Asensio
13 A. Lunin
24 M. Díaz
26 Luis López
16 Odriozola
2 Dani Carvajal
7 E. Hazard
5 Vallejo

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Cadiz

4-4-2
1 J. Ledesma G
20 Isaac Carcelén D
3 Fali Jiménez D
16 Juan Cala D
22 A. Espino D
11 Alejo M
24 Fede M
4 Rubén Alcaraz M
7 Sobrino M
8 Álex F
9 A. Lozano F
Bench (12)
10 T. Bongonda
14 B. Ocampo
15 Lucas Pérez
6 José Mari
18 Álvaro Negredo
12 T. Alarcón
13 David Gil
36 Antonio Blanco
21 S. Arzamendia
19 Álvaro Giménez
37 L. Spatz
17 A. Mabil

Coach: Sergio

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,15
U
8,36
B
19,48
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,43
U2,5
2,81
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

César Soto · 119 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.