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League Cup

Referee: D Coote

Man United

U S S S T

4–2

Full-time

Aston Villa

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

59% Possession 41%

19 Shots 5

8 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 2

8 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milton Keynes Dons	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Blackburn	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Lincoln	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Sheffield Weds	3	2	1	0	+5	7
5	Stevenage	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Derby	3	2	1	0	+2	7
7	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+5	6
8	Nott'm Forest	2	2	0	0	+5	6
9	Bristol City	3	2	0	1	+3	6
10	Burnley	2	2	0	0	+3	6
11	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+2	6
12	Crawley Town	3	2	0	1	+1	6
13	Newport County	3	2	0	1	-1	6
14	Gillingham	3	1	2	0	+2	5
15	Charlton	3	1	2	0	+1	5
16	Exeter City	2	1	1	0	+7	4
17	Bournemouth	2	1	1	0	+3	4
18	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+3	4
19	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+3	4
20	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+2	4
21	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+2	4
22	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	+1	4
23	Stockport County	2	1	1	0	+1	4
24	Morecambe	3	1	1	1	-1	4
25	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
26	Preston	2	1	0	1	+2	3
27	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+2	3
28	Man City	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	Grimsby	2	1	0	1	+1	3
31	Leeds	2	1	0	1	+1	3
32	Peterborough	2	1	0	1	+1	3
33	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
34	Bradford	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Fleetwood Town	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Wycombe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	-1	3
41	Rochdale	2	1	0	1	-1	3
42	Forest Green	2	1	0	1	-1	3
43	Colchester	2	1	0	1	-1	3
44	Everton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
45	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
46	Norwich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
47	Barrow	2	0	2	0	+0	2
48	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Tranmere	2	0	1	1	-1	1
57	Oxford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
58	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Arsenal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Watford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Tottenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
85	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
87	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
88	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
89	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0
90	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0
91	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Milton Keynes Dons	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Crawley Town	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Stevenage	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Man City	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Rochdale	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
15	Grimsby	2	1	0	1	+1	3
16	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
18	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Bradford	2	1	0	1	+0	3
21	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
22	Fleetwood Town	2	1	0	1	+0	3
23	Forest Green	2	1	0	1	-1	3
24	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
25	Norwich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
26	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Southampton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Charlton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Oxford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
39	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Arsenal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Watford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
57	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
58	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
59	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
60	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lincoln	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Bristol City	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Exeter City	2	1	1	0	+7	4
5	Gillingham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Derby	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Charlton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Preston	2	1	0	1	+2	3
14	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+2	3
15	Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Peterborough	2	1	0	1	+1	3
19	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Colchester	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	-1	3
26	Morecambe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
27	Newport County	2	1	0	1	-2	3
28	Everton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
29	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Tottenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Rochdale	1	0	0	1	-3	0
56	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
57	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0
58	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.