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La Liga

Referee: César Soto

Vallecano

T T S T S

2–0

Full-time

Almeria

U T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vallecano Almeria

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

This season — La Liga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 37%

42%

32%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

47%

53%

Both score Ø 58%

53%

63%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,08 xG 1,21

49% Possession 51%

15 Shots 14

11 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 10

3 Corners 7

4 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vallecano 8. · Almeria 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	20	17	2	1	+35	+3.5	53
2	Real Madrid	20	14	3	3	+23	+3.5	45
3	Sociedad	20	12	3	5	+9	+0.5	39
4	Ath Madrid	20	10	5	5	+12	+3.8	35
5	Villarreal	20	9	4	7	+5	+0.6	31
6	Betis	20	9	4	7	+4	+0.1	31
7	Ath Bilbao	20	8	5	7	+8	-0.0	29
8	Vallecano	19	8	5	6	+3	-0.5	29
9	Osasuna	20	8	5	7	+0	-2.8	29
10	Mallorca	20	8	4	8	-2	-2.2	28
11	Girona	20	6	6	8	-2	-1.0	24
12	Celta	20	6	5	9	-10	-1.2	23
13	Valladolid	20	7	2	11	-13	-3.3	23
14	Almeria	19	6	4	9	-6	+0.9	22
15	Espanol	20	4	9	7	-6	+0.8	21
16	Sevilla	20	5	6	9	-8	+1.6	21
17	Valencia	20	5	5	10	+1	-3.2	20
18	Cadiz	20	4	7	9	-18	-0.4	19
19	Getafe	20	4	6	10	-10	-0.4	18
20	Elche	20	1	6	13	-25	-0.3	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	10	8	2	0	+21	+2.2	26
2	Real Madrid	9	6	3	0	+11	+2.9	21
3	Ath Bilbao	11	6	2	3	+9	+0.4	20
4	Villarreal	9	6	1	2	+7	+2.1	19
5	Almeria	10	6	1	3	+5	+1.3	19
6	Osasuna	10	6	0	4	+3	-1.4	18
7	Girona	11	5	3	3	+2	+1.4	18
8	Betis	10	5	2	3	+5	+0.3	17
9	Mallorca	10	5	2	3	+2	-0.7	17
10	Sociedad	10	5	2	3	+1	+0.5	17
11	Valladolid	10	5	1	4	+0	+0.1	16
12	Ath Madrid	10	4	3	3	+5	+2.4	15
13	Valencia	10	4	2	4	+7	+0.4	14
14	Vallecano	9	4	2	3	+2	-0.8	14
15	Celta	10	3	4	3	+0	+0.4	13
16	Sevilla	10	3	3	4	-2	+4.1	12
17	Cadiz	10	2	5	3	-6	+1.5	11
18	Espanol	10	2	4	4	-4	+2.1	10
19	Getafe	10	2	3	5	-4	-1.2	9
20	Elche	10	1	3	6	-8	+2.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	10	9	0	1	+14	+1.3	27
2	Real Madrid	11	8	0	3	+12	+0.6	24
3	Sociedad	10	7	1	2	+8	-0.0	22
4	Ath Madrid	10	6	2	2	+7	+1.4	20
5	Vallecano	10	4	3	3	+1	+0.3	15
6	Betis	10	4	2	4	-1	-0.2	14
7	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	-2	-1.5	12
8	Espanol	10	2	5	3	-2	-1.3	11
9	Osasuna	10	2	5	3	-3	-1.5	11
10	Mallorca	10	3	2	5	-4	-1.5	11
11	Celta	10	3	1	6	-10	-1.6	10
12	Ath Bilbao	9	2	3	4	-1	-0.4	9
13	Sevilla	10	2	3	5	-6	-2.5	9
14	Getafe	10	2	3	5	-6	+0.8	9
15	Cadiz	10	2	2	6	-12	-1.9	8
16	Valladolid	10	2	1	7	-13	-3.4	7
17	Girona	9	1	3	5	-4	-2.3	6
18	Valencia	10	1	3	6	-6	-3.6	6
19	Almeria	9	0	3	6	-11	-0.4	3
20	Elche	10	0	3	7	-17	-2.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.