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La Liga
Referee: César Soto
Espanol
T T S U U
3–3
Full-time
Almeria
S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Espanol Almeria
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
4,2
2,8
Scored
2,0
1,3
Conceded
2,2
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 37/37 matches
Win Ø 26%
22%
30%
Points per game
1,0
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
65%
59%
Both score Ø 71%
76%
65%
Average goals
3,1
2,9
Scored
1,3
1,2
Conceded
1,8
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,59 xG 1,79
63% Possession 37%
12 Shots 11
8 Shots on target 4
1 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
7 Corners 6
2 Offside 0
11 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Espanol 19. · Almeria 17.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Barcelona 37 28 4 5 +51 +18.0 88
2 Real Madrid 38 24 6 8 +39 +17.6 78
3 Ath Madrid 38 23 8 7 +37 +16.1 77
4 Sociedad 38 21 8 9 +16 +10.0 71
5 Villarreal 38 19 7 12 +19 +9.8 64
6 Betis 37 17 8 12 +5 +1.9 59
7 Osasuna 38 15 8 15 -5 -12.3 53
8 Ath Bilbao 38 14 9 15 +4 +6.0 51
9 Mallorca 38 14 8 16 -6 -8.2 50
10 Girona 38 13 10 15 +3 -8.0 49
11 Sevilla 38 13 10 15 -7 +5.4 49
12 Vallecano 38 13 10 15 -8 -4.5 49
13 Valencia 37 11 8 18 -3 +0.9 41
14 Getafe 37 10 11 16 -11 -2.6 41
15 Cadiz 37 10 11 16 -23 -4.6 41
16 Celta 37 10 10 17 -11 -4.1 40
17 Almeria 37 11 7 19 -16 -8.6 40
18 Valladolid 37 11 6 20 -30 -16.0 39
19 Espanol 37 8 12 17 -17 -7.9 36
20 Elche 37 5 9 23 -37 -8.9 24

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Espanol Almeria
-5′
🟨 Gonzalo Melero
10′
E. Touré 0–1
Álex Centelles
1–1 Javi Puado
Darder
13′
Brian Oliván 🟨
30′
30′
🟨 Alejandro Pozo
César Montes 🟨
41′
45′
🟨 Samuel Costa
Half-time 1–1
Simo 🔁
↦ Fernando Calero
46′
2–1 R. Pierre-Gabriel
Brian Oliván
49′
58′
Adri Embarba 2–2
Samú Costa
K. Bare 🔁
↦ Edu Expósito
60′
Óscar Gil 🔁
↦ R. Pierre-Gabriel
63′
L. Koleosho 🔁
↦ Darder
64′
64′
🔁 César de la Hoz
↦ Lázaro
64′
🔁 Portillo
↦ Melero
3–2 L. Koleosho
K. Bare
73′
75′
🔁 Dyego Sousa
↦ Samú Costa
75′
🔁 Sergio Akieme
↦ Álex Centelles
Vinicius Souza 🔁
↦ Nico Melamed
78′
83′
🔁 L. Ramazani
↦ E. Touré
84′
ℹ️ Largie Ramazani
VAR: Penalty confirmed
87′
🟨 Largie Ramazani
87′
Adri Embarba 3–3
Full-time 3–3

Line-ups

Espanol

4-2-3-1
1 Joan García G
18 R. Pierre-Gabriel D
23 C. Montes D
5 Fernando Calero D
14 Brian Oliván D
20 Edu Expósito M
10 Darder M
7 Javi Puado M
21 Nico Melamed M
6 Denis Suárez M
17 M. Braithwaite F
Bench (12)
28 Simo
8 K. Bare
2 Óscar Gil
30 L. Koleosho
12 Vinicius Souza
22 Aleix Vidal
15 José Gragera
16 José Carlos Lazo
13 Fernando Pacheco
9 Joselu
27 Rubén Sánchez
25 Álvaro Fernández

Coach: Luis García

Almeria

4-3-3
13 Fernando Martínez G
17 Alejandro Pozo D
19 Rodrigo Ely D
22 S. Babić D
20 Álex Centelles D
5 L. Robertone M
23 Samú Costa M
3 Melero M
14 Lázaro F
9 E. Touré F
10 Adri Embarba F
Bench (12)
6 César de la Hoz
8 Portillo
11 Dyego Sousa
15 Sergio Akieme
7 L. Ramazani
1 Diego Mariño
29 Marcos Peña
24 H. Mendes
4 Íñigo Eguaras
27 Marciano Tchami
25 Diego Fuoli
18 Arnau Puigmal

Coach: Rubi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,78
U ✓
3,74
B
2,40
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,53
U2,5
2,51
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

César Soto · 119 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.