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Serie A

Referee: F Maresca

Roma

U U U T U

2–1

Full-time

Spezia

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

1,7

2,5

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 37/36 matches

Win Ø 32%

46%

17%

Points per game

1,6

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

41%

47%

Both score Ø 45%

46%

44%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,24 xG 1,05

69% Possession 31%

19 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 8

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Roma 7. · Spezia 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	38	28	6	4	+49	+13.3	90
2	Lazio	38	22	8	8	+30	+6.7	74
3	Inter	38	23	3	12	+29	+18.4	72
4	Juventus	37	21	6	10	+22	+7.7	69
5	Milan	37	19	10	8	+19	+5.4	67
6	Atalanta	37	18	7	12	+15	+2.3	61
7	Roma	37	17	9	11	+11	+6.6	60
8	Fiorentina	38	15	11	12	+10	+8.8	56
9	Torino	38	14	11	13	+1	+4.7	53
10	Monza	37	14	10	13	-1	-3.1	52
11	Bologna	37	13	12	12	+3	-0.6	51
12	Udinese	37	11	13	13	+0	-5.1	46
13	Sassuolo	38	12	9	17	-14	+4.1	45
14	Empoli	38	10	13	15	-12	-7.6	43
15	Salernitana	38	9	15	14	-14	-15.0	42
16	Lecce	37	8	12	17	-12	+0.0	36
17	Verona	36	7	9	20	-26	-8.1	30
18	Spezia	36	6	12	18	-30	-5.6	30
19	Cremonese	38	5	12	21	-33	-13.8	27
20	Sampdoria	38	3	10	25	-47	-19.3	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	19	14	3	2	+25	+7.2	45
2	Juventus	19	13	3	3	+23	+6.4	42
3	Inter	19	14	0	5	+23	+10.5	42
4	Milan	18	12	4	2	+19	+7.7	40
5	Lazio	19	11	4	4	+14	+2.9	37
6	Roma	18	10	3	5	+12	+2.4	33
7	Fiorentina	19	9	6	4	+8	+10.3	33
8	Bologna	19	7	9	3	+10	-0.8	30
9	Atalanta	18	9	3	6	+9	+5.7	30
10	Sassuolo	19	8	4	7	+1	+1.0	28
11	Empoli	19	8	4	7	-1	-1.4	28
12	Udinese	18	6	9	3	+11	+2.3	27
13	Salernitana	19	7	6	6	+4	-7.2	27
14	Monza	19	7	5	7	+3	+1.0	26
15	Torino	19	5	7	7	-4	+2.6	22
16	Verona	19	6	3	10	-12	-5.4	21
17	Spezia	18	4	7	7	-12	-5.0	19
18	Lecce	18	3	8	7	-5	+2.2	17
19	Cremonese	19	4	4	11	-16	-5.4	16
20	Sampdoria	19	1	7	11	-16	-3.4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	19	14	3	2	+24	+6.0	45
2	Lazio	19	11	4	4	+16	+3.8	37
3	Atalanta	19	9	4	6	+6	-3.3	31
4	Torino	19	9	4	6	+5	+2.2	31
5	Inter	19	9	3	7	+6	+8.0	30
6	Milan	19	7	6	6	+0	-2.3	27
7	Roma	19	7	6	6	-1	+4.3	27
8	Juventus	18	8	3	7	-1	+1.4	27
9	Monza	18	7	5	6	-4	-4.1	26
10	Fiorentina	19	6	5	8	+2	-1.5	23
11	Bologna	18	6	3	9	-7	+0.2	21
12	Lecce	19	5	4	10	-7	-2.2	19
13	Udinese	19	5	4	10	-11	-7.4	19
14	Sassuolo	19	4	5	10	-15	+3.2	17
15	Empoli	19	2	9	8	-11	-6.2	15
16	Salernitana	19	2	9	8	-18	-7.8	15
17	Cremonese	19	1	8	10	-17	-8.4	11
18	Spezia	18	2	5	11	-18	-0.6	11
19	Verona	17	1	6	10	-14	-2.8	9
20	Sampdoria	19	2	3	14	-31	-15.8	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.