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La Liga

Referee: Victor Garcia Verdura

Celta

T S T S T

2–1

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

U U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 36%

23%

49%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

51%

43%

Both score Ø 47%

54%

40%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

1,1

1,6

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,77 xG 0,22

53% Possession 47%

10 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Celta 17. · Ath Bilbao 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	36	29	6	1	+61	+35.5	93
2	Barcelona	35	23	7	5	+29	+36.5	76
3	Girona	36	23	6	7	+30	+13.6	75
4	Ath Madrid	35	22	4	9	+25	+21.0	70
5	Ath Bilbao	35	17	11	7	+22	+10.9	62
6	Betis	35	14	13	8	+5	-5.5	55
7	Sociedad	35	14	12	9	+11	+6.0	54
8	Villarreal	36	14	9	13	+0	-4.2	51
9	Valencia	35	13	9	13	-2	-4.9	48
10	Getafe	35	10	13	12	-7	-5.9	43
11	Alaves	36	11	9	16	-11	-0.5	42
12	Sevilla	36	10	11	15	-3	-11.1	41
13	Osasuna	36	11	8	17	-14	-8.7	41
14	Vallecano	36	8	14	14	-15	-2.3	38
15	Las Palmas	35	10	7	18	-14	-22.7	37
16	Mallorca	36	7	15	14	-12	-6.1	36
17	Celta	35	8	10	17	-13	-4.4	34
18	Cadiz	36	6	14	16	-24	-14.2	32
19	Granada	36	4	9	23	-33	-20.0	21
20	Almeria	35	2	11	22	-35	-12.9	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	18	16	2	0	+39	+25.6	50
2	Ath Madrid	18	16	1	1	+23	+18.5	49
3	Girona	18	14	2	2	+26	+12.0	44
4	Barcelona	18	14	1	3	+19	+21.1	43
5	Ath Bilbao	18	11	6	1	+22	+15.8	39
6	Betis	18	9	7	2	+10	+6.9	34
7	Valencia	18	8	6	4	+8	+4.4	30
8	Getafe	17	8	5	4	+2	+3.3	29
9	Alaves	18	8	4	6	+3	+6.5	28
10	Sociedad	17	7	6	4	+7	+4.1	27
11	Villarreal	18	7	4	7	+4	+7.1	25
12	Mallorca	18	6	7	5	+1	-1.2	25
13	Sevilla	18	6	5	7	+1	-2.3	23
14	Cadiz	18	5	8	5	-3	+4.6	23
15	Las Palmas	17	6	4	7	+0	-6.5	22
16	Osasuna	18	6	4	8	-7	-0.1	22
17	Celta	17	5	5	7	-3	+11.1	20
18	Vallecano	18	4	8	6	-7	+0.4	20
19	Granada	18	4	6	8	-7	-2.0	18
20	Almeria	17	0	8	9	-17	+0.1	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	18	13	4	1	+22	+9.9	43
2	Barcelona	17	9	6	2	+10	+15.4	33
3	Girona	18	9	4	5	+4	+1.6	31
4	Sociedad	18	7	6	5	+4	+1.8	27
5	Villarreal	18	7	5	6	-4	-11.2	26
6	Ath Bilbao	17	6	5	6	+0	-4.9	23
7	Ath Madrid	17	6	3	8	+2	+2.5	21
8	Betis	17	5	6	6	-5	-12.4	21
9	Osasuna	18	5	4	9	-7	-8.6	19
10	Sevilla	18	4	6	8	-4	-8.9	18
11	Vallecano	18	4	6	8	-8	-2.8	18
12	Valencia	17	5	3	9	-10	-9.3	18
13	Las Palmas	18	4	3	11	-14	-16.2	15
14	Getafe	18	2	8	8	-9	-9.2	14
15	Celta	18	3	5	10	-10	-15.4	14
16	Alaves	18	3	5	10	-14	-7.0	14
17	Mallorca	18	1	8	9	-13	-4.9	11
18	Almeria	18	2	3	13	-18	-13.0	9
19	Cadiz	18	1	6	11	-21	-18.8	9
20	Granada	18	0	3	15	-26	-18.0	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.