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La Liga

Referee: Juan Luis Pulido Santana

Alaves

S T T T S

3–0

Full-time

Celta

T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Celta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

1,5

2,7

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 25%

28%

22%

Points per game

1,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

25%

50%

Both score Ø 47%

38%

56%

Average goals

2,1

2,6

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,35 xG 0,22

37% Possession 63%

16 Shots 4

8 Shots on target 0

2 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alaves 14. · Celta 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	33	26	6	1	+49	+31.9	84
2	Girona	33	22	5	6	+29	+13.1	71
3	Barcelona	32	21	7	4	+27	+34.3	70
4	Ath Madrid	32	19	4	9	+21	+19.6	61
5	Ath Bilbao	32	16	10	6	+22	+14.3	58
6	Sociedad	33	13	12	8	+11	+7.4	51
7	Betis	32	12	12	8	+2	-6.1	48
8	Valencia	32	13	8	11	+1	-5.7	47
9	Getafe	33	10	13	10	-4	-8.5	43
10	Villarreal	32	11	9	12	-4	-1.7	42
11	Osasuna	32	11	6	15	-9	-6.2	39
12	Sevilla	32	9	10	13	-4	-9.0	37
13	Las Palmas	33	10	7	16	-11	-22.7	37
14	Alaves	32	9	8	15	-10	-1.2	35
15	Vallecano	32	7	13	12	-12	-4.0	34
16	Celta	32	7	10	15	-10	-4.4	31
17	Mallorca	32	6	13	13	-12	-6.8	31
18	Cadiz	32	4	13	15	-23	-14.6	25
19	Granada	32	3	9	20	-28	-17.4	18
20	Almeria	33	1	11	21	-35	-12.3	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	16	14	2	0	+31	+23.0	44
2	Ath Madrid	16	14	1	1	+20	+17.6	43
3	Girona	16	13	2	1	+25	+11.6	41
4	Ath Bilbao	17	11	5	1	+22	+15.6	38
5	Barcelona	16	12	1	3	+15	+19.5	37
6	Betis	16	8	6	2	+9	+6.6	30
7	Valencia	16	8	5	3	+9	+3.6	29
8	Getafe	16	8	5	3	+4	-0.4	29
9	Sociedad	16	6	6	4	+5	+4.1	24
10	Alaves	16	7	3	6	+0	+4.5	24
11	Mallorca	16	5	7	4	+1	-0.7	22
12	Las Palmas	17	6	4	7	+0	-6.5	22
13	Osasuna	16	6	3	7	-5	+0.9	21
14	Sevilla	16	5	5	6	-1	-2.4	20
15	Villarreal	16	5	4	7	+0	+5.2	19
16	Cadiz	16	4	7	5	-4	+4.1	19
17	Celta	16	4	5	7	-4	+7.8	17
18	Vallecano	16	3	8	5	-7	-2.3	17
19	Granada	16	3	6	7	-6	-2.3	15
20	Almeria	17	0	8	9	-17	+0.1	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	17	12	4	1	+18	+8.9	40
2	Barcelona	16	9	6	1	+12	+14.8	33
3	Girona	17	9	3	5	+4	+1.5	30
4	Sociedad	17	7	6	4	+6	+3.3	27
5	Villarreal	16	6	5	5	-4	-6.9	23
6	Ath Bilbao	15	5	5	5	+0	-1.3	20
7	Ath Madrid	16	5	3	8	+1	+2.0	18
8	Osasuna	16	5	3	8	-4	-7.2	18
9	Betis	16	4	6	6	-7	-12.8	18
10	Valencia	16	5	3	8	-8	-9.2	18
11	Sevilla	16	4	5	7	-3	-6.6	17
12	Vallecano	16	4	5	7	-5	-1.8	17
13	Las Palmas	16	4	3	9	-11	-16.2	15
14	Celta	16	3	5	8	-6	-12.3	14
15	Getafe	17	2	8	7	-8	-8.1	14
16	Alaves	16	2	5	9	-10	-5.7	11
17	Mallorca	16	1	6	9	-13	-6.1	9
18	Almeria	16	1	3	12	-18	-12.4	6
19	Cadiz	16	0	6	10	-19	-18.7	6
20	Granada	16	0	3	13	-22	-15.1	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.