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La Liga

Referee: Cesar Soto Grado

Celta

S U T S T

3–2

Full-time

Villarreal

S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 29%

21%

36%

Points per game

0,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

52%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

55%

79%

Average goals

2,6

3,3

Scored

1,1

1,6

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

3,85 xG 0,63

54% Possession 46%

23 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 1

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 5

4 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Celta 17. · Villarreal 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	34	27	6	1	+52	+33.3	87
2	Girona	34	23	5	6	+31	+12.4	74
3	Barcelona	34	22	7	5	+27	+35.1	73
4	Ath Madrid	34	21	4	9	+24	+20.0	67
5	Ath Bilbao	34	17	10	7	+22	+10.7	61
6	Sociedad	34	14	12	8	+13	+7.4	54
7	Betis	34	13	13	8	+4	-5.1	52
8	Valencia	33	13	8	12	-1	-5.8	47
9	Villarreal	33	12	9	12	-1	-1.5	45
10	Getafe	34	10	13	11	-6	-4.8	43
11	Osasuna	34	11	6	17	-14	-7.9	39
12	Sevilla	33	9	11	13	-4	-9.6	38
13	Alaves	33	10	8	15	-7	+1.0	38
14	Las Palmas	34	10	7	17	-13	-22.7	37
15	Vallecano	33	7	13	13	-15	-4.3	34
16	Mallorca	34	6	14	14	-13	-6.7	32
17	Celta	33	7	10	16	-13	-6.6	31
18	Cadiz	34	4	14	16	-26	-16.6	26
19	Granada	33	4	9	20	-25	-16.1	21
20	Almeria	33	1	11	21	-35	-12.3	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	17	15	2	0	+34	+24.4	47
2	Ath Madrid	17	15	1	1	+22	+17.5	46
3	Girona	17	14	2	1	+27	+10.9	44
4	Barcelona	17	13	1	3	+17	+19.6	40
5	Ath Bilbao	17	11	5	1	+22	+15.6	38
6	Betis	17	8	7	2	+9	+7.3	31
7	Valencia	16	8	5	3	+9	+3.6	29
8	Getafe	17	8	5	4	+2	+3.3	29
9	Sociedad	17	7	6	4	+7	+4.1	27
10	Alaves	17	8	3	6	+3	+6.6	27
11	Villarreal	17	6	4	7	+3	+5.5	22
12	Las Palmas	17	6	4	7	+0	-6.5	22
13	Mallorca	17	5	7	5	+0	-1.2	22
14	Osasuna	17	6	3	8	-7	+0.5	21
15	Sevilla	16	5	5	6	-1	-2.4	20
16	Cadiz	17	4	8	5	-4	+3.5	20
17	Granada	17	4	6	7	-3	-1.0	18
18	Celta	16	4	5	7	-4	+7.8	17
19	Vallecano	16	3	8	5	-7	-2.3	17
20	Almeria	17	0	8	9	-17	+0.1	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	17	12	4	1	+18	+8.9	40
2	Barcelona	17	9	6	2	+10	+15.4	33
3	Girona	17	9	3	5	+4	+1.5	30
4	Sociedad	17	7	6	4	+6	+3.3	27
5	Ath Bilbao	17	6	5	6	+0	-4.9	23
6	Villarreal	16	6	5	5	-4	-6.9	23
7	Ath Madrid	17	6	3	8	+2	+2.5	21
8	Betis	17	5	6	6	-5	-12.4	21
9	Sevilla	17	4	6	7	-3	-7.3	18
10	Osasuna	17	5	3	9	-7	-8.4	18
11	Valencia	17	5	3	9	-10	-9.3	18
12	Vallecano	17	4	5	8	-8	-2.0	17
13	Las Palmas	17	4	3	10	-13	-16.3	15
14	Getafe	17	2	8	7	-8	-8.1	14
15	Celta	17	3	5	9	-9	-14.4	14
16	Alaves	16	2	5	9	-10	-5.7	11
17	Mallorca	17	1	7	9	-13	-5.5	10
18	Almeria	16	1	3	12	-18	-12.4	6
19	Cadiz	17	0	6	11	-22	-20.0	6
20	Granada	16	0	3	13	-22	-15.1	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.