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La Liga

Referee: Francisco Hernandez Maeso

Celta

S T S U T

4–1

Full-time

Las Palmas

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Las Palmas

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 26%

19%

32%

Points per game

0,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

48%

29%

Both score Ø 47%

55%

39%

Average goals

2,5

2,1

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

1,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

3,99 xG 0,98

32% Possession 68%

21 Shots 9

13 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 9

8 Corners 4

6 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Celta 17. · Las Palmas 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	31	24	6	1	+47	+31.1	78
2	Barcelona	31	21	7	3	+28	+35.2	70
3	Girona	31	20	5	6	+24	+12.7	65
4	Ath Madrid	31	19	4	8	+23	+19.1	61
5	Ath Bilbao	32	16	10	6	+22	+14.3	58
6	Sociedad	31	13	11	7	+12	+6.5	50
7	Valencia	31	13	8	10	+2	-5.4	47
8	Betis	31	11	12	8	+1	-6.4	45
9	Villarreal	31	10	9	12	-5	-1.7	39
10	Getafe	31	9	12	10	-6	-7.1	39
11	Osasuna	31	11	6	14	-8	-6.2	39
12	Las Palmas	31	10	7	14	-6	-19.4	37
13	Sevilla	31	8	10	13	-5	-9.4	34
14	Alaves	31	8	8	15	-12	-0.7	32
15	Mallorca	31	6	13	12	-11	-6.5	31
16	Vallecano	31	6	13	12	-13	-4.0	31
17	Celta	31	6	10	15	-13	-7.5	28
18	Cadiz	31	4	13	14	-20	-14.4	25
19	Granada	32	3	9	20	-28	-17.4	18
20	Almeria	31	1	11	19	-32	-13.0	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	16	14	1	1	+20	+17.6	43
2	Real Madrid	15	13	2	0	+30	+22.1	41
3	Ath Bilbao	17	11	5	1	+22	+15.6	38
4	Girona	15	12	2	1	+22	+11.4	38
5	Barcelona	16	12	1	3	+15	+19.5	37
6	Betis	16	8	6	2	+9	+6.6	30
7	Valencia	15	8	5	2	+10	+3.8	29
8	Getafe	15	8	4	3	+4	+0.3	28
9	Sociedad	15	6	6	3	+6	+3.9	24
10	Las Palmas	16	6	4	6	+2	-6.2	22
11	Mallorca	16	5	7	4	+1	-0.7	22
12	Alaves	15	6	3	6	-2	+5.0	21
13	Osasuna	16	6	3	7	-5	+0.9	21
14	Villarreal	16	5	4	7	+0	+5.2	19
15	Cadiz	16	4	7	5	-4	+4.1	19
16	Sevilla	15	4	5	6	-2	-2.7	17
17	Granada	16	3	6	7	-6	-2.3	15
18	Celta	15	3	5	7	-7	+4.8	14
19	Vallecano	15	2	8	5	-8	-2.3	14
20	Almeria	15	0	8	7	-14	-0.7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	16	11	4	1	+17	+9.1	37
2	Barcelona	15	9	6	0	+13	+15.7	33
3	Girona	16	8	3	5	+2	+1.3	27
4	Sociedad	16	7	5	4	+6	+2.6	26
5	Ath Bilbao	15	5	5	5	+0	-1.3	20
6	Villarreal	15	5	5	5	-5	-6.9	20
7	Ath Madrid	15	5	3	7	+3	+1.5	18
8	Osasuna	15	5	3	7	-3	-7.2	18
9	Valencia	16	5	3	8	-8	-9.2	18
10	Sevilla	16	4	5	7	-3	-6.6	17
11	Vallecano	16	4	5	7	-5	-1.8	17
12	Betis	15	3	6	6	-8	-13.0	15
13	Las Palmas	15	4	3	8	-8	-13.2	15
14	Celta	16	3	5	8	-6	-12.3	14
15	Getafe	16	1	8	7	-10	-7.4	11
16	Alaves	16	2	5	9	-10	-5.7	11
17	Mallorca	15	1	6	8	-12	-5.8	9
18	Cadiz	15	0	6	9	-16	-18.5	6
19	Almeria	16	1	3	12	-18	-12.4	6
20	Granada	16	0	3	13	-22	-15.1	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.