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La Liga

Referee: José Luis Munuera Montero

Vallecano

T T U S T

0–1

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vallecano Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 36%

22%

49%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

38%

43%

Both score Ø 38%

35%

41%

Average goals

2,1

2,6

Scored

0,8

1,6

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,07 xG 0,70

63% Possession 37%

17 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

6 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vallecano 16. · Ath Bilbao 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	37	29	7	1	+61	+34.8	94
2	Barcelona	37	25	7	5	+34	+37.2	82
3	Girona	38	25	6	7	+39	+16.6	81
4	Ath Madrid	38	24	4	10	+27	+22.9	76
5	Ath Bilbao	37	18	11	8	+23	+11.1	65
6	Sociedad	38	16	12	10	+12	+3.6	60
7	Betis	37	14	14	9	+3	-5.4	56
8	Villarreal	38	14	11	13	+0	-2.8	53
9	Valencia	37	13	9	15	-5	-4.8	48
10	Alaves	37	12	9	16	-10	+0.4	45
11	Osasuna	38	12	9	17	-11	-9.0	45
12	Getafe	37	10	13	14	-11	-7.4	43
13	Sevilla	37	10	11	16	-5	-11.8	41
14	Celta	37	10	10	17	-11	-4.1	40
15	Las Palmas	37	10	9	18	-14	-21.9	39
16	Vallecano	37	8	14	15	-18	-2.3	38
17	Mallorca	37	7	16	14	-12	-3.5	37
18	Cadiz	37	6	15	16	-24	-13.9	33
19	Granada	38	4	9	25	-41	-23.4	21
20	Almeria	37	2	12	23	-37	-16.1	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	18	16	2	0	+39	+25.6	50
2	Ath Madrid	19	16	1	2	+20	+18.2	49
3	Girona	19	15	2	2	+33	+15.6	47
4	Barcelona	19	15	1	3	+22	+21.1	46
5	Ath Bilbao	19	12	6	1	+24	+16.5	42
6	Betis	19	9	7	3	+8	+8.1	34
7	Alaves	19	9	4	6	+4	+7.4	31
8	Sociedad	19	8	6	5	+6	+3.0	30
9	Valencia	19	8	6	5	+6	+5.0	30
10	Getafe	18	8	5	5	-1	+2.6	29
11	Villarreal	19	7	5	7	+4	+7.8	26
12	Mallorca	19	6	8	5	+1	+1.4	26
13	Cadiz	19	5	9	5	-3	+4.9	24
14	Sevilla	18	6	5	7	+1	-2.3	23
15	Las Palmas	18	6	5	7	+0	-5.4	23
16	Celta	18	6	5	7	-2	+11.6	23
17	Osasuna	19	6	5	8	-7	-0.7	23
18	Vallecano	18	4	8	6	-7	+0.4	20
19	Granada	19	4	6	9	-8	-1.8	18
20	Almeria	18	0	8	10	-19	-0.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	19	13	5	1	+22	+9.1	44
2	Barcelona	18	10	6	2	+12	+16.1	36
3	Girona	19	10	4	5	+6	+1.1	34
4	Sociedad	19	8	6	5	+6	+0.6	30
5	Ath Madrid	19	8	3	8	+7	+4.7	27
6	Villarreal	19	7	6	6	-4	-10.6	27
7	Ath Bilbao	18	6	5	7	-1	-5.5	23
8	Osasuna	19	6	4	9	-4	-8.3	22
9	Betis	18	5	7	6	-5	-13.4	22
10	Sevilla	19	4	6	9	-6	-9.6	18
11	Valencia	18	5	3	10	-11	-9.8	18
12	Vallecano	19	4	6	9	-11	-2.7	18
13	Celta	19	4	5	10	-9	-15.7	17
14	Las Palmas	19	4	4	11	-14	-16.5	16
15	Getafe	19	2	8	9	-10	-10.1	14
16	Alaves	18	3	5	10	-14	-7.0	14
17	Mallorca	18	1	8	9	-13	-4.9	11
18	Almeria	19	2	4	13	-18	-15.6	10
19	Cadiz	18	1	6	11	-21	-18.8	9
20	Granada	19	0	3	16	-33	-21.6	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.