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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernandez

Ath Bilbao

U S S S U

4–0

Full-time

Vallecano

U S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Vallecano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 40%

50%

29%

Points per game

1,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

57%

36%

Both score Ø 43%

43%

Average goals

3,1

2,4

Scored

1,9

1,1

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,23 xG 0,51

50% Possession 50%

9 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 2

5 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Bilbao 5. · Vallecano 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	15	12	2	1	+16	+9.0	38
2	Real Madrid	14	11	2	1	+22	+11.5	35
3	Ath Madrid	13	10	1	2	+18	+13.2	31
4	Barcelona	14	9	4	1	+13	+14.2	31
5	Ath Bilbao	14	7	4	3	+8	+8.8	25
6	Sociedad	14	7	4	3	+8	+1.7	25
7	Betis	14	6	6	2	+2	+1.4	24
8	Las Palmas	15	6	3	6	+0	-3.7	21
9	Vallecano	14	4	7	3	-2	-5.1	19
10	Valencia	15	5	4	6	-3	+0.8	19
11	Getafe	15	4	7	4	-3	-4.9	19
12	Villarreal	14	4	3	7	-4	-5.3	15
13	Alaves	14	4	3	7	-5	+1.1	15
14	Osasuna	14	4	2	8	-8	-5.7	14
15	Sevilla	13	2	6	5	+0	-5.3	12
16	Cadiz	14	2	5	7	-10	-8.4	11
17	Mallorca	14	1	7	6	-7	-4.2	10
18	Celta	14	1	5	8	-10	-3.1	8
19	Granada	14	1	4	9	-14	-10.6	7
20	Almeria	14	0	3	11	-21	-5.4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	7	7	0	0	+10	+9.3	21
2	Girona	8	6	1	1	+8	+3.1	19
3	Barcelona	7	6	0	1	+10	+6.6	18
4	Betis	7	5	2	0	+8	+5.9	17
5	Sociedad	8	5	2	1	+7	+0.3	17
6	Real Madrid	6	5	1	0	+12	+9.0	16
7	Getafe	7	4	3	0	+4	+1.0	15
8	Ath Bilbao	7	4	2	1	+7	+8.0	14
9	Las Palmas	7	4	2	1	+4	-0.2	14
10	Valencia	7	4	1	2	+5	+4.5	13
11	Alaves	7	4	1	2	+1	+3.5	13
12	Sevilla	7	2	3	2	+3	-1.1	9
13	Cadiz	7	2	3	2	-1	+2.4	9
14	Villarreal	8	2	1	5	-2	-1.0	7
15	Vallecano	7	1	4	2	-6	-4.7	7
16	Granada	7	1	3	3	-4	-4.7	6
17	Mallorca	6	0	5	1	-1	-1.5	5
18	Osasuna	7	1	2	4	-5	-0.2	5
19	Celta	7	0	3	4	-7	+0.6	3
20	Almeria	7	0	2	5	-8	-0.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	8	6	1	1	+10	+2.5	19
2	Girona	7	6	1	0	+8	+5.9	19
3	Barcelona	7	3	4	0	+3	+7.6	13
4	Vallecano	7	3	3	1	+4	-0.4	12
5	Ath Bilbao	7	3	2	2	+1	+0.7	11
6	Ath Madrid	6	3	1	2	+8	+3.9	10
7	Osasuna	7	3	0	4	-3	-5.5	9
8	Sociedad	6	2	2	2	+1	+1.3	8
9	Villarreal	6	2	2	2	-2	-4.3	8
10	Las Palmas	8	2	1	5	-4	-3.4	7
11	Betis	7	1	4	2	-6	-4.4	7
12	Valencia	8	1	3	4	-8	-3.7	6
13	Celta	7	1	2	4	-3	-3.7	5
14	Mallorca	8	1	2	5	-6	-2.8	5
15	Getafe	8	0	4	4	-7	-5.9	4
16	Sevilla	6	0	3	3	-3	-4.2	3
17	Alaves	7	0	2	5	-6	-2.4	2
18	Cadiz	7	0	2	5	-9	-10.8	2
19	Granada	7	0	1	6	-10	-5.9	1
20	Almeria	7	0	1	6	-13	-5.0	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.