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La Liga

Referee: César Soto

Valencia

S T T U U

1–2

Full-time

Real Madrid

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

4,2

Scored

1,2

2,7

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 17/18 matches

Win Ø 40%

12%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

47%

61%

Both score Ø 52%

53%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

0,9

2,3

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,89 xG 2,01

38% Possession 62%

8 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 5

0 Offside 4

16 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Valencia 19. · Real Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	18	12	5	1	+21	+15.2	41
2	Real Madrid	18	12	4	2	+23	+15.4	40
3	Barcelona	19	12	2	5	+29	+21.6	38
4	Ath Bilbao	19	10	6	3	+12	+7.7	36
5	Villarreal	18	8	6	4	+4	+10.1	30
6	Mallorca	19	9	3	7	-2	+0.4	30
7	Sociedad	18	7	4	7	+3	+3.6	25
8	Girona	18	7	4	7	+1	+6.1	25
9	Betis	18	6	7	5	-1	+5.6	25
10	Osasuna	18	6	7	5	-4	-6.0	25
11	Celta	18	7	3	8	-1	+5.8	24
12	Vallecano	18	5	7	6	-1	-1.3	22
13	Las Palmas	18	6	4	8	-4	-14.8	22
14	Sevilla	18	6	4	8	-7	-5.1	22
15	Leganes	18	4	6	8	-11	-17.4	18
16	Alaves	18	4	5	9	-9	-5.2	17
17	Getafe	18	3	7	8	-4	-3.4	16
18	Espanol	18	4	3	11	-14	-14.4	15
19	Valencia	17	2	6	9	-10	-7.9	12
20	Valladolid	18	3	3	12	-25	-15.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	9	8	0	1	+15	+12.3	24
2	Ath Madrid	9	7	2	0	+13	+15.8	23
3	Ath Bilbao	10	6	3	1	+9	+4.4	21
4	Celta	10	6	2	2	+8	+5.6	20
5	Osasuna	10	5	3	2	+4	+2.6	18
6	Girona	9	5	1	3	+5	+7.7	16
7	Betis	9	4	4	1	+4	+11.1	16
8	Sevilla	9	5	1	3	+0	+1.6	16
9	Barcelona	8	5	0	3	+12	+15.2	15
10	Mallorca	10	4	3	3	-2	-3.1	15
11	Getafe	10	3	5	2	+3	+4.0	14
12	Espanol	9	4	2	3	+1	-1.9	14
13	Villarreal	9	3	4	2	+1	+3.1	13
14	Las Palmas	9	3	3	3	+0	-4.5	12
15	Alaves	8	3	3	2	+0	-2.0	12
16	Sociedad	9	3	2	4	+0	+3.7	11
17	Leganes	9	3	1	5	-7	-4.4	10
18	Valencia	8	2	3	3	+1	-0.4	9
19	Vallecano	8	2	3	3	-1	+4.5	9
20	Valladolid	9	2	3	4	-6	-6.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	7	2	2	+17	+6.4	23
2	Ath Madrid	9	5	3	1	+8	-0.6	18
3	Villarreal	9	5	2	2	+3	+7.0	17
4	Real Madrid	9	4	4	1	+8	+3.0	16
5	Ath Bilbao	9	4	3	2	+3	+3.3	15
6	Mallorca	9	5	0	4	+0	+3.5	15
7	Sociedad	9	4	2	3	+3	-0.1	14
8	Vallecano	10	3	4	3	+0	-5.8	13
9	Las Palmas	9	3	1	5	-4	-10.3	10
10	Girona	9	2	3	4	-4	-1.6	9
11	Betis	9	2	3	4	-5	-5.5	9
12	Leganes	9	1	5	3	-4	-12.9	8
13	Osasuna	8	1	4	3	-8	-8.6	7
14	Sevilla	9	1	3	5	-7	-6.8	6
15	Alaves	10	1	2	7	-9	-3.2	5
16	Celta	8	1	1	6	-9	+0.2	4
17	Valencia	9	0	3	6	-11	-7.5	3
18	Valladolid	9	1	0	8	-19	-9.8	3
19	Getafe	8	0	2	6	-7	-7.4	2
20	Espanol	9	0	1	8	-15	-12.5	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.