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Serie A
Referee: F Fourneau
Parma
S U T S S
1–1
Full-time
Brescia
T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Parma Brescia
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 25%
50%
0%
Average goals
2,2
2,7
Scored
1,3
0,7
Conceded
0,8
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-1,3
This season — Serie A · 16/16 matches
Win Ø 35%
44%
25%
Points per game
1,5
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
44%
63%
Both score Ø 44%
50%
38%
Average goals
2,6
2,6
Scored
1,4
0,9
Conceded
1,2
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

52% Possession 48%
13 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
9 Corners 5
2 Offside 3
16 Free kicks against 10
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Parma 7. · Brescia 18.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Inter 17 13 3 1 +22 42
2 Juventus 17 13 3 1 +14 42
3 Lazio 16 11 3 2 +22 36
4 Roma 17 10 5 2 +16 35
5 Atalanta 17 9 4 4 +18 31
6 Cagliari 17 8 5 4 +10 29
7 Parma 16 7 3 6 +4 24
8 Napoli 16 5 6 5 +4 21
9 Torino 17 6 3 8 -4 21
10 Milan 17 6 3 8 -8 21
11 Sassuolo 16 5 4 7 +1 19
12 Bologna 16 5 4 7 -3 19
13 Verona 16 5 4 7 -3 19
14 Udinese 17 5 3 9 -15 18
15 Fiorentina 17 4 5 8 -7 17
16 Lecce 16 3 6 7 -12 15
17 Sampdoria 17 4 3 10 -13 15
18 Brescia 16 4 1 11 -14 13
19 Spal 17 3 3 11 -14 12
20 Genoa 17 2 5 10 -18 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Parma Brescia
28′
🟨 Andrea Cistana
Half-time 0–0
Alberto Grassi 🔁
↦ Gervinho
55′
61′
🔁 Mario Balotelli
↦ Alfredo Donnarumma
Hernani 🟨
69′
Riccardo Gagliolo 🟨
69′
72′
Mario Balotelli 0–1
Juraj Kucka 🔁
↦ Gastón Brugman
74′
75′
🟨 Aleš Matějů
78′
🔁 Leonardo Morosini
↦ Ernesto Torregrossa
Giuseppe Pezzella 🔁
↦ Antonino Barillà
81′
83′
🔁 Bruno Martella
↦ Nikolas Špalek
1–1 Alberto Grassi
Dejan Kulusevski
90′
Alberto Grassi 🟨
90′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Parma

4-3-3
1 Luigi Sepe G
36 Matteo Darmian D
2 Simone Iacoponi D
22 Bruno Alves D
28 Riccardo Gagliolo D
10 Hernani M
15 Gastón Brugman M
17 Antonino Barillà M
93 Mattia Sprocati F
44 Dejan Kulusevski F
27 Gervinho F
Bench (8)
34 Simone Colombi
53 Fabrizio Alastra
3 Kastriot Dermaku
16 Vincent Laurini
97 Giuseppe Pezzella
8 Alberto Grassi
33 Juraj Kucka
88 Andrea Adorante

Coach: R. D'Aversa

Brescia

4-3-1-2
1 Jesse Joronen G
2 Stefano Sabelli D
15 Andrea Cistana D
14 Jhon Chancellor D
3 Aleš Matějů D
25 Dimitri Bisoli M
4 Sandro Tonali M
28 Rômulo M
7 Nikolas Špalek M
11 Ernesto Torregrossa F
9 Alfredo Donnarumma F
Bench (12)
22 Enrico Alfonso
12 Lorenzo Andrenacci
26 Bruno Martella
20 Giangiacomo Magnani
5 Daniele Gastaldello
23 Leonardo Morosini
19 Massimiliano Mangraviti
8 Jaromír Zmrhal
24 Mattia Viviani
21 Alessandro Matri
18 Florian Aye
45 Mario Balotelli

Coach: E. Corini

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,08
U ✓
3,36
B
3,67
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,96
U2,5 ✓
1,84
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

F Fourneau · 86 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
27,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.