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Serie A

Referee: D Orsato

Lazio

S S S S T

3–0

Full-time

Milan

S U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

4,2

3,0

Scored

2,3

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

This season — Serie A · 31/32 matches

Win Ø 61%

58%

63%

Points per game

1,9

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

58%

66%

Both score Ø 62%

65%

59%

Average goals

3,2

3,1

Scored

1,7

1,9

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

40% Possession 60%

14 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 9

3 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 6. · Milan 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	33	24	7	2	+43	79
2	Atalanta	33	20	8	5	+39	68
3	Napoli	33	21	3	9	+36	66
4	Juventus	33	19	9	5	+35	66
5	Milan	32	20	6	6	+22	66
6	Lazio	31	18	4	9	+7	58
7	Roma	33	16	7	10	+7	55
8	Sassuolo	33	14	10	9	+5	52
9	Sampdoria	33	12	6	15	-4	42
10	Verona	33	11	8	14	-1	41
11	Udinese	33	10	9	14	-6	39
12	Bologna	33	10	8	15	-9	38
13	Genoa	33	8	12	13	-11	36
14	Fiorentina	33	8	10	15	-12	34
15	Spezia	33	8	9	16	-20	33
16	Torino	32	6	13	13	-10	31
17	Cagliari	33	8	7	18	-17	31
18	Benevento	33	7	10	16	-29	31
19	Parma	33	3	11	19	-34	20
20	Crotone	33	5	3	25	-41	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	16	14	1	1	+25	43
2	Juventus	17	13	2	2	+24	41
3	Roma	17	11	4	2	+17	37
4	Atalanta	17	11	3	3	+25	36
5	Napoli	16	11	2	3	+26	35
6	Lazio	15	10	2	3	+8	32
7	Milan	17	7	5	5	+5	26
8	Bologna	16	7	4	5	+5	25
9	Sassuolo	16	6	7	3	+4	25
10	Sampdoria	16	7	2	7	+1	23
11	Genoa	17	5	7	5	+1	22
12	Fiorentina	17	5	6	6	+0	21
13	Verona	16	6	3	7	+0	21
14	Udinese	16	5	3	8	-3	18
15	Spezia	16	4	6	6	-5	18
16	Cagliari	17	5	3	9	-9	18
17	Torino	16	2	8	6	-5	14
18	Crotone	16	4	1	11	-11	13
19	Benevento	17	2	6	9	-18	12
20	Parma	17	2	5	10	-18	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	15	13	1	1	+17	40
2	Inter	17	10	6	1	+18	36
3	Atalanta	16	9	5	2	+14	32
4	Napoli	17	10	1	6	+10	31
5	Sassuolo	17	8	3	6	+1	27
6	Lazio	16	8	2	6	-1	26
7	Juventus	16	6	7	3	+11	25
8	Udinese	17	5	6	6	-3	21
9	Verona	17	5	5	7	-1	20
10	Sampdoria	17	5	4	8	-5	19
11	Benevento	16	5	4	7	-11	19
12	Roma	16	5	3	8	-10	18
13	Torino	16	4	5	7	-5	17
14	Spezia	17	4	3	10	-15	15
15	Genoa	16	3	5	8	-12	14
16	Cagliari	16	3	4	9	-8	13
17	Fiorentina	16	3	4	9	-12	13
18	Bologna	17	3	4	10	-14	13
19	Parma	16	1	6	9	-16	9
20	Crotone	17	1	2	14	-30	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.