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Serie A

Referee: M Guida

Fiorentina

S T T U S

2–3

Full-time

Milan

T S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

This season — Serie A · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 45%

26%

63%

Points per game

1,1

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

52%

63%

Both score Ø 52%

52%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,9

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

39% Possession 61%

9 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 3

8 Corners 8

1 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 14. · Milan 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	27	20	5	2	+39	65
2	Milan	27	17	5	5	+19	56
3	Atalanta	28	16	7	5	+31	55
4	Juventus	27	16	7	4	+31	55
5	Napoli	26	16	2	8	+27	50
6	Roma	27	15	5	7	+11	50
7	Lazio	27	15	4	8	+6	49
8	Sassuolo	27	10	9	8	+1	39
9	Verona	28	10	8	10	+2	38
10	Sampdoria	28	10	5	13	-4	35
11	Bologna	28	9	7	12	-5	34
12	Udinese	28	8	9	11	-6	33
13	Genoa	28	7	10	11	-10	31
14	Fiorentina	27	7	8	12	-9	29
15	Spezia	28	7	8	13	-15	29
16	Benevento	28	7	8	13	-24	29
17	Torino	27	4	11	12	-11	23
18	Cagliari	28	5	7	16	-17	22
19	Parma	28	3	10	15	-28	19
20	Crotone	28	4	3	21	-38	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	13	11	1	1	+22	34
2	Roma	14	10	3	1	+18	33
3	Juventus	14	10	2	2	+19	32
4	Napoli	13	9	1	3	+22	28
5	Atalanta	14	8	3	3	+18	27
6	Lazio	13	8	2	3	+5	26
7	Milan	14	6	4	4	+5	22
8	Bologna	13	6	3	4	+3	21
9	Verona	14	6	3	5	+2	21
10	Fiorentina	14	5	5	4	+2	20
11	Sampdoria	14	6	2	6	+1	20
12	Sassuolo	13	4	6	3	+1	18
13	Udinese	14	5	3	6	-1	18
14	Genoa	14	4	5	5	-1	17
15	Spezia	14	3	5	6	-6	14
16	Crotone	14	4	1	9	-9	13
17	Cagliari	14	3	3	8	-9	12
18	Benevento	14	2	5	7	-15	11
19	Parma	15	2	5	8	-15	11
20	Torino	13	1	7	5	-5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	13	11	1	1	+14	34
2	Inter	14	9	4	1	+17	31
3	Atalanta	14	8	4	2	+13	28
4	Juventus	13	6	5	2	+12	23
5	Lazio	14	7	2	5	+1	23
6	Napoli	13	7	1	5	+5	22
7	Sassuolo	14	6	3	5	+0	21
8	Benevento	14	5	3	6	-9	18
9	Verona	14	4	5	5	+0	17
10	Roma	13	5	2	6	-7	17
11	Udinese	14	3	6	5	-5	15
12	Sampdoria	14	4	3	7	-5	15
13	Spezia	14	4	3	7	-9	15
14	Genoa	14	3	5	6	-9	14
15	Torino	14	3	4	7	-6	13
16	Bologna	15	3	4	8	-8	13
17	Cagliari	14	2	4	8	-8	10
18	Fiorentina	13	2	3	8	-11	9
19	Parma	13	1	5	7	-13	8
20	Crotone	14	0	2	12	-29	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.